NBA - February 13th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Tyler Herro ($6,900)
Guards against Milwaukee seem to always get there and Herro is just about the only guard they have left. Right now they are without Rozier, Richardson, Butler and Lowry who they traded. He has 37+ DK points in back to back games and will command big usage for sure. Bam has a tougher matchup in the paint against Giannis and Lopez who will stretch him out so I think he maybe struggles. I just can’t imagine a scenario where this game stays even remotely close with Herro not doing well. Their one weakness is against guards and the Heat are smart enough to expose them. It is a massive pace up spot that I think the Heat need Herro to show up in and his price is still affordable enough to make a lot work around him.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,300)
Mid: D’Angelo Russell ($7,300) or Cade Cunningham ($7,800)
Cheap: Mike Conley ($5,000) or Cole Anthony ($3,500)
SG: Duncan Robinson ($4,200)
While he is quite shot dependent, he will get plenty of opportunities in this one. He played 33 minutes last game with Rozier playing half the game and now he is also out along with Butler and Richardson. I don’t see a path to him not getting a massive amount of shots up and play close to 40 minutes in this spot. For the same reason I like Herro, I am going to like Robinson. They let teams shoot, especially guards and Robinson is being used in that fashion tonight. Pace up against a bad defensive is always a recipe for success and Robinson is just too cheap to pass up.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Anthony Edwards ($8,500) or Devin Booker ($9,700)
Mid: Bradley Beal ($7,300) or Derrick White ($6,300)
Cheap: Malik Monk ($5,800) or Dennis Schroder ($4,800)
SF: Ausar Thompson ($4,900)
This is more a play of I like a ton of different guys from this range and Ausar is probably the one that will come in with the lowest ownership. After trading Burks and Bojan, Ausar has entered back into the starting lineup and should see around 30 minutes of action. While his play can be volatile at times, he has been able to put up solid games with 28+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games. They face the Lakers tonight who are top 5 in pace and don’t exactly have the best defensive efficiency either. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 6% ownership with a 9% optimal rate so the positive leverage score gives me confidence he can be a good value tonight. All this being said, there are a lot of good SF options so if you want to go to others I see no issue with that.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jayson Tatum ($9,500) or Lebron James ($9,600)
Mid: Franz Wagner ($7,100)
Cheap: Jaime Jacquez ($4,500) or Troy Brown ($3,000)
PF: Keegan Murray ($5,100)
Murray has a huge ceiling when his shot is falling and he gets the minutes, but lately he has been quite volatile as of late which has brought his price down a ton. I am willing to strike now that I think it is about to bottom out and I think you should too. He is coming off of a 34 minute and 38 DK point game against OKC which isn’t even the best matchup. The pace isn’t the best for PHX who they play tonight, but the defensive efficiency isn’t the greatest compared to OKC. Hopefully he can get his shot to fall and be a big value. I am willing to risk for the ceiling knowing that his floor could completely ruin those lineups with him.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Kevin Durant ($9,800) or Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700)
Mid: Kristaps Porzingis ($7,800) or Jalen Williams ($7,000)
Cheap: Simone Fontecchio ($4,700) or Jonathan Isaac ($3,400)
C: Rudy Gobert ($7,200)
Gobert is playing like one of the most consistent Cs in the league right now and he gets to face off against Ayton and the Blazers who are a very poor defensive team. He has 38+ DK points in 6 of the last 7 games and is doing so in big minutes. It all comes down to whether or not this game can stay close and projecting for that seems tough with them on a back to back and Portland on 3 days rest. I think they get some of their guys back to really make this a game which will keep Gobert on the court. His ownership projection from DFS Hero is just 16% which is a good spot to be if you ask me considering there are 5 other Cs getting higher ownership.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Anthony Davis ($10,100) or Domantas Sabonis ($10,000)
Mid: Jalen Duren ($7,100)
Cheap: Kevin Love ($3,600) or Naz Reid ($4,200)
