I think this is as close to a David vs. Goliath matchup as it gets with most everyone, even Big Ben, expecting to be steamrolled. He even came out in a press conference and said "We don't have a chance, so let's just go in and have fun". He knows that it's probably over after this one for him in Pittsburgh, but I think that statement actually gives us some idea of the direction Pitt will head. In my mind, this means that Ben Roethlisberger ($5,200) and his noodle arm will go out guns blazing and even if it means he throws 5 INTs so be it. I think they pretty much abandon the run and let Ben go out with a bang (or bust). I think that alone has me off of Najee Harris ($6,600) who is priced up and banged up as well. KC allowed the 5th most pass yards/game in the league this season, so it makes sense for Pitt to throw anyways. I would 100% start with Diontae Johnson ($6,700) in my your lineups who will likely get 10+ targets, a ton of catches and has a decent shot at a TD. He isn't too expensive compared to the top end WR options on the slate, so you should be able to fit him fairly comfortably. The defensive matchup isn't too bad and he did put up 6/51/1 in the first meeting a few weeks ago. There aren't many WR's in the league that you can say had double digit targets in 13/17 games this season. I just wish he had a higher ceiling, so maybe Diontae is more of a cash play over GPP. Next up you have Chase Claypool ($4,800) and Pat Freiermuth ($4,200) who eat up a good amount of the rest of the targets. Claypool is their clear deep threat, so targets aren't plentiful but he makes up for that with a high YPC. KC was middle of the pack in explosive pass plays allowed, so I don't mind Claypool, but the floor is quite low. I think they throw enough that Claypool still gets his due, but we'd need a TD for Claypool to get there even at a cheaper price. Similar can be said for Pat, except for him the YPC and ADOT are much lower. KC was again middle of the pack against TE's, so it isn't a bad spot. I just don't envision a scenario where Pitt actually puts up enough points that all of these guys could be viable. Even in a scenario where Pitt doesn't score, I think Diontae is the only one that holds enough value to be worth it. I think the last guy worth mentioning is Ray Ray McCloud ($3,700) who has actually been getting a ton of targets lately. 7, 8, and 9 targets in the last 3 games is really promising going into this one and he isn't too expensive. I see him similar to a Zay Jones lite where he is getting a lot of targets, is cheap, but not doing a ton with them. He still has a solid floor with the catches alone, but there isn't much value to roll with so I guess he is fine too.
As for Kansas City, they are actually a bit tougher to project because if this game gets out of hand they might limit their key guys to maintain health for the long playoff run. Patrick Mahomes ($7,400) is almost always going to lean on his top dogs, Tyreek Hill ($7,100) and Travis Kelce ($6,700), to get the job done but as of late he has been incorporating other assets in the offense more than in the earlier part of the season. Hill picked up a heel injury last week in warm ups and it seems to still be effecting him. Given the price, injury and the fact that he didn't do much against PIT in the first meeting, I will likely be fading him. I still think for GPPs the ceiling is there and he can go bonkers on any given Sunday. His issue has just been consistency this season which makes it hard for me to want to play him. Yeah he can win you a contest by himself, but he's been losing you contests at a much more frequent rate. Travis Kelce on the other hand has been a bit more consistent even if it isn't up to his standards. He is still less then a month removed from a 44 DK point outing and is coming off of three straight double digit DK point games. My only real concern is that Pitt has allowed the 3rd fewest TE TDs this season and not really many DK points. Kelce did not play in that Week 16 matchup against Pitt so there isn't much to go off of, but it goes without saying Byron Pringle ($3,900) carried his end of the bargain in that one. He put up a 6/75/2 stat line but again that was without Kelce and a limited Hill. His role will certainly be lower here, but I still think his price is decent and he is the clear WR2 in the offense now. He is still getting decent targets even with Kelce and Hill, so he is fine as a punt play. My only real draw back with Pringle is this game could get out of hand early and if he isn't a part of that early blowout production, then you might not see him score much at all. You also have Mecole Hardman ($4,100) and Demarcus Robinson ($3,300) to consider. Hardman just seems like the Tyreek fill in at this point. While he does have a high ceiling, it is more if Hill is limited or out. If anything comes out about Hill being limited or he does miss this game magically, then load up on Hardman. Robinson on the other hand seems to have his own role which isn't exactly a large one so be hesitant there. He doesn't have a single game over 3 catches this season, so you would need a bomb or a TD for him to be viable. I would likely pass on him here. Lastly, the backfield is kind of a mess because we have no clue by Sunday whether Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,600) is going to play. If he does end up suiting up, fade the backfield all together because it will likely be a committee approach. However, if he is out or said to be limited, Darrell Williams ($5,500) actually holds a good bit of value. He is cheap, should be in a solid game script, and has some receiving upside as well. I wouldn't expect Derrick Gore ($4,000) to get any serious playoff run here, so don't worry about him.
UPDATE: Clyde is out so Darrell is firmly in play. I think it is a crap shoot between him, Sony and Singletary for me.