NFL – Wild Card Weekend Breakdown

The NFL Season has finally concluded which means that the playoffs are finally here! As a long time NFL DFS player, it has become quite apparent studying winning lineups for hundreds of contests that Team and Game Stacking is the ticket to the top. Focusing in on specific stacks based on Vegas implied totals, spreads and pricing can give us the most optimal stacks for any given week! Our goal in this article is to look at all 6 of our Wild Card games to try to find the best values, stacks and fades that will leave you winning a lot of money this weekend.
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Game #1: Raiders @ Bengals (CIN -5, 49) SAT 4:35 PM EST

This game boasts the 3rd highest implied total for Wild Card weekend and should feature two QBs ready to sling the ball. From a game flow standpoint, this one feels like the Bengals will get out to an early lead which will make Vegas have to throw the ball a lot more than they run it and the Bengal's pass defense was bottom 6 in the league this season. Given their top 5 rush defense over the span of the season, the smart game plan would be to attack Cincy through the air anyways, so you might see a LV pass catcher actually become viable. I don't think rolling with Derek Carr ($5,500) from an optimal standpoint would make much sense. You will probably want the highest scoring QB on the slate anyways and he is extremely unlikely to do that this weekend. However, someone like Hunter Renfrow ($6,000) who was a surprise standout this season could be a solid contrarian option. Double digit DK points in 14/17 games this season and will have a matchup against Mike Hilton who allowed the most catches and yards on the Bengals this season. Renfrow is usually a target monster, leading his team with 128 targets and 2nd in weighted target share. The only guy that had a higher weighted target share on the Raiders was Darren Waller ($5,700) and is part of the reason I am still a bit hesitant of Renfrow. In Waller's return 18, which was a must win game, Waller got 9 targets and Renfrow saw his targets drop to just 5. The only reason Renfrow salvaged a good stat line was due to 2 TDs on just 2 catches for the whole game. If the targets are going to come down then there is good reason to be skeptical especially when the TDs will likely regress. Those are the only two guys I really trust in the pass game. While I don't fully trust him, Bryan Edwards ($3,400) and Zay Jones ($4,200) as a punt options aren't the worst ideas. They led in snap % for Raider's WRs last game and got 8 and 5 targets respectively. Zay has been more of a target monster the last few weeks compared to Renfrow, with 7+ targets in each of the last 5 games. He should see a good bit of Eli Apple who allowed the 2nd most yards on the Bengals. I think his price and target upside actually make me like him more than Renfrow from a GPP perspective. He opens up your roster for more expensive options and he has a decent ceiling as well. Renfrow seems like more of a cash game options. As for the backfield, it really has been the Josh Jacobs ($6,500) show as of late, with him scoring 25 and 18 DK points in the last two games, but this matchup against Cincy won't be the easiest. I don't envision he puts up much on the ground and will have to rely on his pass catching work more than usual. The big issue is that he has only gotten an average of 3 targets/game over the last 3 games. I think given the inflated price, I would rather look elsewhere.

The Bengal's offense seems to be in a better stacking spot with how Joe Burrow ($6,800) performed over Week 16 and 17. He put up a whopping 971 passing yards across those weeks which I would believe to be the highest over a two week span this season. He took last week off to get healthy and will look to come back and win his first playoff game. He has a ton of weapons at his disposal with JaMarr Chase ($7,400), Tee Higgins ($6,300) and Tyler Boyd ($5,000) being one of the best trios in the league. Given Chase's performance to end the season with a massive 59 DK point outburst, I can't imagine they don't give him a bit of extra coverage to keep him contained. Not to mention that he should see a good bit of the vet Casey Hayward in coverage who did not allow a lot of catches in coverage this season. This will likely open up a lot for Higgins who had himself a season as well to be in a more positive target script. He has a very high ceiling as well, eclipsing 40 DK points in Week 16 and will probably draw rookie Nate Hobbs in coverage who allowed the most catches in coverage this season for the Raiders. Given the price difference, I would prefer Higgins over Chase, but if Chase comes in severely under owned (less than 8%), then I think he is a great contrarian option. He can always break a huge play, but LV was 5th in fewest explosive pass plays allowed. It just seems like Higgins is in a better spot here. Then you get to Tyler Boyd who can be hit or miss at times, but from Week 13-17 he did put up double digit points in each game with a TD in the last 3 games he has played. The targets seem to have settled around 5-7, so he needs to be efficient with his catches and YPC to put up enough compared to his price tag. I would probably pass on him given I doubt he gets a TD for a 4th straight game. He only scored 2 TDs through his first 12 games so his 3 TDs in his last 3 seem like a massive outlier. Lastly, there is CJ Uzomah ($3,200) who did end up with 7 and 6 targets in the last two weeks he played and LV is notorious for giving up DK points to TE (10 TDs/1,000 yards to TEs this season). There are quite a few TE options on this slate, so he might not be necessary. However, I do like the target share and think he can put up a solid stat line. The last player to talk about is none other than Joe Mixon ($6,800) who put on an absolute show against LV in their first meeting with 30/123/2. He is about as close to a lock as it gets with the Raiders having given up 18 rush TDs this season and a solid amount of rush yards/game. His price is quite appealing compared to the other top end RBs on the slate, so load up on Mixon for this one.

Game #2: Patriots @ Bills (BUF -4, 44) SAT 8:15 PM EST

Coming in with the lowest implied total on the slate, this might not be the best game to target for a game stack. On top of that, both of these teams are 1 and 2 in pass yards allowed/game. That is quite concerning, but I still like options from this game. I am going to start with NE since they will be a bit quicker to write about. Buffalo had an elite defense this season and it isn't like the Pats offense is anything special. I would pass on using Mac Jones ($5,100) just because the ceiling isn't high enough and he only scored 1 and 7 DK points in the two meetings. The only guy that I think I could trust is Damien Harris ($6,400) who had 100 yards in both games against BUF to the tune of 20 and 30 DK point outings. I think given this is the playoffs and the Bills know that the Pats will attempt to get Harris going the same way he did in those regular season meetings that they will put an extra guy in the box. That could leave them a bit exposed at the DB position leaving guys like Jakobi Meyers ($4,500), Kendrick Bourne ($4,500) or Nelson Agholor ($3,100) in more 1 on 1 situations. Buffalo's safeties are elite though, so I don't think thy will be able to attack them deep. Agholor is more of that deep threat that I don't think will be open, so Meyers and Bourne are in a much better spot here. Meyers is my prefered options with the price points being the same. He has 8+ targets in each of the last 5 games and double digit DK points in each of them as well. I think he is a fine cheap option here, but his lack of TD upside is what pulls me away from playing him. As for Bourne, he didn't do much of anything in the regular season meeting which is why I am not a huge fan and the price is a bit high compared to the recent production. He has only had more than 5 targets once in the last 5 games. This might be a better spot to target Hunter Henry ($3,700) who has 5+ targets in each of the last 5 meetings. I still think Harris is the only one I will personally run with, but Henry is a close 2nd. The targets are there and they will likely be playing from behind in this one. For NE, that is about all I would go after.

Buffalo is a whole different story. They have so many weapons to go to which sometimes makes it hard to identify who will stand out. Josh Allen ($7,800) put on a clinic in the one game that really matters against NE this season, amassing 33 DK points with 3 pass TDs and 64 rush yards. I don't think Belichick will let him do that again here, so maybe temper your expectations here. His top weapons, Stefon Diggs ($7,200) is a target monster and nothing is really going to change that. The thing that scares me is that he will likely see a good bit of JC Jackson who has played at an all-pro level this season. They will still move Diggs around enough to get him in positive situation away from Jackson, but I think couple that matchup and the implied total makes me dislike this spot for Diggs. There is no denying his talent, but when you look at him vs. the other guys on the slate, there are much better plays. You then have Emmanuel Sanders ($4,000), Cole Beasley ($4,300) and Gabe Davis ($4,600) who could all have a boom games given the right circumstances. I think Sanders would have to be my odd man out. He hasn't produced in quite a while, has been banged up and might now be 4th on the depth chart due to Davis' resurgence. Davis can beat you in so many ways and what is wild to me is last game he got 14 targets which was 2nd on the team. He only managed 3 catches on those targets which is the massive concern, but we all know his immense upside and TD equity. He is probably my favorite Bill's WR from a value perspective. He will also see a good bit of Jalen Mills in this one and Mills gave up 7 TDs this season which led the Pats by a wide margin. As for Beasley, he will likely get moved around quite a bit and probably has a stronger floor. My big concern with him is the TD upside. Only 1 TD this year and it was in a game without Dawson Knox ($4,800) who I will go ahead and say I think is vastly overpriced. Beasley would have to get a lucky TD to more than likely be an optimal play which leads me to go towards Davis for just a little bit more anyways if I want a Bills pass catcher. Back to Knox, his production of late hasn't been terrible or anything. It just hasn't be good enough to warrant almost $5,000. Single digit DK points in 5 of the last 6 games, 5 or fewer targets in each of the last 4 games and only 4 catches across the two games against NE this season. I just can't get behind those stats at all. Similar to Beasley, he would need a TD to even be remotely viable but atleast in Knox's case that it is certainly in play. As for the backfield, it is Devin Singletary ($5,700) or bust and I really like the price tag. He has been incredibly efficient as of late and has been getting a good amount of touches as well. He has TD's in each of the last 4 games with 1 against NE in their last meeting. I think my only drawback for Singletary is in the two meetings against NE this season, he only had 10 and 12 rushes which was vastly different from the other games last in the season where he was getting 15-20+. He seems to be extremely game script dependent currently and that worries me. I still think it is the right script for him here, but if the Pats manage and early lead you might see Singletary become extremely dependent on his pass catching upside which has also been solid lately. That is what still has me wanting to play him along with his cheaper price tag, so don't be afraid to roll him out.

Game #3: Eagles @ Buccaneers (TB -8, 49) SUN 1:00 PM EST

This game comes in tied for 3rd on the slate for implied total and will feature two offenses with extremely different molds facing off. Tampa is a pass happy offense that unfortunately lost a ton of receiving pieces to end the season going up against a stout Philly secondary that could give Tom some issues. On the flip side, Philly is very much run first, but are going up against a great Tampa rush defense that allowed under 100 rush yards/game this season. These two teams played earlier in the season, with Tampa coming out on top 28-22. To be fair, if you look at the box score it really looks like if Jalen Hurts ($6,100) hadn't had 2 rush TDs this game would have blown out. They had nothing going for them in the air with only 115 pass yards and at the time Tampa's secondary was down to their CB3-4 and some practice squad fill ins. They made Hurts look awful and given their pedigree I think this game will be incredibly hard for Hurts once again. If he can't get the run game going they will get handled fairly easily which doesn't help for DFS purposes. You don't want blowouts, but that does help the case for RBs on the winning team. Philly likely won't be that winning team, so probably stay away from the 3 headed RB monster for Philly. Miles Sanders ($5,100), Boston Scott ($4,500), and Jordan Howard ($4,100) will likely all see some time even though I personally think Sanders should be the only one getting heavy work. He was pretty hit or miss in the first meeting, only getting 9 rush attempts, but salvaged 56 yards out of them. I still think the volume won't be enough to get him over the hump, so fading him seems like the optimal choice and not touching the other two unless one gets scratched is also the likely smart move as well. Pass catching options seem to be tough to predict mostly due to Hurts just not being an efficient passer. Devonta Smith ($5,500) has one double digit DK point game in his last 6 games and did nothing in the first matchup. Dallas Goedert ($4,500) is pretty much the only guy I think you can trust. He has double digit DK points in 4 of the last 6, a solid target share and decent TD upside. TB isn't anything special against TEs so I think he can still thrive. The only thing really keeping me from playing Goedert is the number or solid TE options on this slate. You might have to use him at UTIL if you want to go that route which from a macro standpoint is a decent strategy in GPPs. It all comes down to trusting Hurts to get him the ball and actually being able to score points. I think Goedert has a safe floor, but might not have the highest ceiling in this matchup compared to other TEs on the slate. Outside of those guys, I don't think the likes of Quez Watkins ($3,900), Jalen Reagor ($3,100) and Greg Ward ($3,000) don't give me any confidence so I think I would fade them entirely.

As for the Bucs, I think they can win this game in a number of ways. Tom Brady ($7,300) in the last game was extremely efficient going 34/42 which isn't anything out of the ordinary for Philly to allow. They allowed the highest completion % this season at 69.4% despite allowing the 10th fewest pass yards. They funnel a lot of their production towards the middle of the field and the one guy that I think should absolutely crush this matchup is Rob Gronkowski ($6,400). OJ Howard put up 6/49/1 in Week 6 matchup between these two teams and the Eagles have given up the 2nd most DK points to TEs this season just behind LAC. They just can never seem to stop the position and with Godwin, AB and now Grayson out at the WR position, Gronk will get a ton of targets and likely fall into the endzone. Those stats alone make me also like Cameron Brate ($2,800) as well, but his issue is his low snap count. He gets targets when on the field, but he is only out there for around 30% of the plays. He has 3+ targets in each of the last 5 games with 2 TDs as well. They might lean on him more in the red zone and he has the off chance of vulturing a TD. I think I would still just stick to Gronk here, but he makes for an interesting GPP play. As for the WRs, Mike Evans ($6,900) is the only real trustworthy option. He has had 7 targets in back to back weeks with a TD in each as well. They really don't have many WR bodies left, so Tom will likely get him those 7 targets or more once again. My only concern is that he did nothing in the Week 6 matchup and again Philly's secondary is extremely good. Whether it be Nelson or Slay that guards him, they are both solid CBs. I prefer Gronk over Evans given these factors. You then have Tyler Johnson ($4,000) who is also getting the snaps and targets, but just hasn't been able to get into the endzone. If he is going to continue to get those targets then I can't help but to like him here. Similar to Evans, my only fear is the matchup. Philly is just that bad against TEs and good against WRs that a lot of production gets funneled to those positions. What Johnson does have going for him is the price, so if you think the matchup isn't as big of deal and you want to follow volume, Johnson is in a great spot here. You also have Breshad Perriman ($4,700) and Scotty Miller ($3,800) seeing some WR snaps. I think both are overpriced for what their role will be in this game, but Perriman does intrigue me quite a bit. I think he gets little to no ownership and will likely get the odd man out CB matchup. He is always good for a big play and makes for a great GPP option. He also played on 62% of the snaps last week compared to Scotty's 23%, but still lagged behind Johnson's 87%. I think what mitigates the ownership and big play upside for Perriman is the fact that the Eagles allowed the 2nd fewest explosive pass plays in the league this season. You might only see 1 chance for Perriman to become GPP viable and if it doesn't hit, he could very well go for a 0-3 DK points. All in all, it just seems like a Gronk spot over all of these guys and then looking at the backfield, as long as Leonard Fournette ($5,900) is going to be active and healthy, you almost have to play him at this price tag. In the first game against Philly, he put up 30 DK points with 22/81/2 as well as 6 catches for 46 yards. He is extremely cheap for the implied role and ceiling and I don't want to miss out on that. The best way to attack Philly is either with your TEs or on the ground. Luckily for TB, they have great options in Gronk and Fournette at those two spots. If Fournette is unable to go for this one, taking the value on Ke'Shawn Vaughn ($4,500) or LeVeon Bell ($4,600) makes the most sense and opens up a ton for you in your lineups.

Game #4: 49ers @ Cowboys (DAL -3, 51) SUN 4:30 PM EST

Dallas and SF come in with the highest implied total for Wild Card weekend, so having a piece from this game might be essential when you only have 6 games to work with. I think this is the one game that could go either way, so it is a bit tough to get a read on. I think Dallas has a bit of a leg up here just based on QB play, but both defenses when they are on their game can be top notch. I think from a big play perspective, Dallas is a lot more susceptible which opens ups things for the 49ers offense to actually be the better DFS play. However, the 49ers secondary is a bit weaker from a true talent standpoint, which leaves Dallas in a good spot to be productive from a DFS perspective. This is what makes me actually like this game a ton. Starting with the 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,300) really hasn't been that terrible lately and has tons of weapons to go to. For such a cheap price tag, I actually think he might be worth a go in GPPs if you are 20 maxing or more. The ceiling might not be there, but he is just so cheap and opens things up for the rest of your roster. If he manages to get to 20 DK points that might be all he needs even if that is the 7th or 8th highest scoring QB output. George Kittle ($6,000) and Deebo Samuel ($8,100) are the clear top options in the passing game. Deebo quite possibly could have the highest floor of any player on the slate with his rushing upside paired with the pass catching. There is just something about him where he can take 10-15 touches and turn it into 30 DK points and you can't say that about anyone else on the slate other than maybe Tyreek Hill. I think the only thing I am skeptical on is the price tag is just that high and given the playoff nature of teams to only use their best (which ends up being their more expensive) players, you rarely see good value open up. Trying to fit him in with two solid RBs or a good TE is almost impossible. I am not knocking him at all; he could still go for somewhere north of that 30 DK point mark. The big issue is given the price he HAS to go for over that 30 DK point mark to likely be optimal. I would rather look to Kittle at either TE or UTIL who has a similar ceiling to Samuel but for a fraction of the price. Following two massive games in Week's 13 and 14, he has underwhelmed as of late with three straight single digit performances. Dallas is in the bottom half of the league for TE production allowed, so I think Kittle is in a good spot here. I just fear that if Dallas is going to try to find one place to stop SF it will be with Kittle. They know they are going to get beat at the CB position with Diggs and Brown giving up massive plays all over the place. This might be the spot to go after Brandon Aiyuk ($5,400) who has three straight double digit DK point games and a cupcake matchup against Anthony Brown or Diggs who allowed the most pass yards in the league this season. In his last two games with Jimmy G, he has 100 yards or a TD, so there is some serious scoring upside. The 49ers might be trailing in this one if Dallas' offense can get going early, so passing might be the optimal route for them. Aiyuk just grades out as such a good tournament play here with little to no ownership coming his way. This is the perfect spot to target him. You also have Jauan Jennings ($3,800) who popped off last game to the tune of 6/94/2. He will probably get the Jourdan Lewis coverage which is actually the worst matchup if I am being honest. I would probably shy away from chasing Jennings here based on that matchup, but he is still a decent option based on targets and snap share. We can talk about Diggs and his 11 INTs all day but that doesn't mean a whole lot for DFS purposes other than for the DST category. He gives up big plays all over the place and so does Anthony "DPI" Brown. This is a really good spot to target the 49er receiving group and for me it starts with Aiyuk and not Kittle/Deebo. Lastly, if Eli Mitchell ($5,500) is going to play then he is likely the only 49er RB to get touches. With Dallas allowing the 7th fewest rush TDs this season, I think I would lean towards fading him, but he should get solid volume. They still allow a good number of yards, but that will likely be split 60/40 with Deebo, so he would need that TD to be viable and in all likelihood it could probably go to Deebo over him.

As for the Cowboys, Dak Prescott ($6,400) has been red hot to end the season with 12 TDs in the last three games and no INTs. His price magically came down, so I think he makes for a solid cash game QB option. The 49ers do have a solid defense that gave Matt Stafford the fits last week and can probably do the same to Dak. They were also top 10 in yards allowed for rushing and passing this season, so maybe temper your expectations for Dak here as a tournament play. They could easily balance their attack with Ezekiel Elliot ($6,100) and Tony Pollard ($5,300) and still win this game. I am not in love with either of these guys as GPP plays just because they limit each other's upsides and trying to figure out which one falls into the end zone is kind of a crap shoot. I would lean towards Zeke just because I think they were saving him up for the playoffs. No point in limiting him when you need him the most. I just still don't like his YPC number compared to Pollards, but Pollard likely won't get enough touches. I think going after the passing attack makes a bit more sense here with CeeDee Lamb ($6,200) and Amari Cooper ($5,900) leading the way for them. If I am being quite honest Lamb has been horrible to end the season and I am fearful for him in this spot. Dak just loves to spread the ball around and it caps all of their upsides. I think with Lamb you just have to trust that the law of averages has to have him in line for a big game here soon. No better time than in a must win Wild Card game. The targets have dropped every week since Week 13 despite needing to win most of those games. It is one of those spots where we all know that Lamb could go for 20+ DK points, we haven't seen it in a while, and once we finally stop playing him it will happen. I am not going to go there, but I am not going to talk you out of him. For me it is the recent production has been terrible and the matchup likely against K'Waun Williams is not a good one. Amari on the other hand has been a bit more productive with double digit DK points and 7+ targets in 4 of the last 5 games. I think there is a better chance he matches up with Ambry Thomas or Josh Norman which are much better matchups compared to Williams. He seems to score at a more consistent rate compared to Lamb as well who only scored in 4/16 games this season (Cooper scored in 7/16 games). At the slightly cheaper price tag, I am leaning Cooper over Lamb here. As for the other receiving options, Cedrick Wilson ($4,400) and Dalton Schultz ($5,000) have been the main reason for Cooper and Lamb's disappointing finishes. Wilson scored 30 and 19 DK points in the final 2 games with 3 TDs and Schultz has 17+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games with 4 TDs as well. Teams are doing everything they can to limit Cooper and Lamb to the point that Wilson and Schultz are in way too many 1 v 1 coverages. For a QB, those are the best to target so Dak is doing a great job getting them the ball and making the smart plays. You would have to imagine that the 49ers have recognized this and will try to possibly limit those two a bit more, but you never know. I think Schultz is a fine play, but the 49ers allowed the 7th fewest DK points to TEs this season, so I am a bit weary especially with the price tag being a bit high. I still think he gets volume, but if the TD isn't there then I don't know if he will be able to do enough to be optimal with the other solid TD options on this slate. As for Wilson, he likely gets an easier matchup against Norman or Thomas, so I like his prospects. I think I liked him more when he was extremely cheap, but maybe that will bring the ownership down on him a bit, so I am all for it. All in all, this game does have a lot of upside, but it might turn into a bit of a guessing game as to which guys show up and push towards being an optimal play.

Game #5: Steelers @ Chiefs (KC -12, 46) SUN 8:15 PM EST

I think this is as close to a David vs. Goliath matchup as it gets with most everyone, even Big Ben, expecting to be steamrolled. He even came out in a press conference and said "We don't have a chance, so let's just go in and have fun". He knows that it's probably over after this one for him in Pittsburgh, but I think that statement actually gives us some idea of the direction Pitt will head. In my mind, this means that Ben Roethlisberger ($5,200) and his noodle arm will go out guns blazing and even if it means he throws 5 INTs so be it. I think they pretty much abandon the run and let Ben go out with a bang (or bust). I think that alone has me off of Najee Harris ($6,600) who is priced up and banged up as well. KC allowed the 5th most pass yards/game in the league this season, so it makes sense for Pitt to throw anyways. I would 100% start with Diontae Johnson ($6,700) in my your lineups who will likely get 10+ targets, a ton of catches and has a decent shot at a TD. He isn't too expensive compared to the top end WR options on the slate, so you should be able to fit him fairly comfortably. The defensive matchup isn't too bad and he did put up 6/51/1 in the first meeting a few weeks ago. There aren't many WR's in the league that you can say had double digit targets in 13/17 games this season. I just wish he had a higher ceiling, so maybe Diontae is more of a cash play over GPP. Next up you have Chase Claypool ($4,800) and Pat Freiermuth ($4,200) who eat up a good amount of the rest of the targets. Claypool is their clear deep threat, so targets aren't plentiful but he makes up for that with a high YPC. KC was middle of the pack in explosive pass plays allowed, so I don't mind Claypool, but the floor is quite low. I think they throw enough that Claypool still gets his due, but we'd need a TD for Claypool to get there even at a cheaper price. Similar can be said for Pat, except for him the YPC and ADOT are much lower. KC was again middle of the pack against TE's, so it isn't a bad spot. I just don't envision a scenario where Pitt actually puts up enough points that all of these guys could be viable. Even in a scenario where Pitt doesn't score, I think Diontae is the only one that holds enough value to be worth it. I think the last guy worth mentioning is Ray Ray McCloud ($3,700) who has actually been getting a ton of targets lately. 7, 8, and 9 targets in the last 3 games is really promising going into this one and he isn't too expensive. I see him similar to a Zay Jones lite where he is getting a lot of targets, is cheap, but not doing a ton with them. He still has a solid floor with the catches alone, but there isn't much value to roll with so I guess he is fine too.

As for Kansas City, they are actually a bit tougher to project because if this game gets out of hand they might limit their key guys to maintain health for the long playoff run. Patrick Mahomes ($7,400) is almost always going to lean on his top dogs, Tyreek Hill ($7,100) and Travis Kelce ($6,700), to get the job done but as of late he has been incorporating other assets in the offense more than in the earlier part of the season. Hill picked up a heel injury last week in warm ups and it seems to still be effecting him. Given the price, injury and the fact that he didn't do much against PIT in the first meeting, I will likely be fading him. I still think for GPPs the ceiling is there and he can go bonkers on any given Sunday. His issue has just been consistency this season which makes it hard for me to want to play him. Yeah he can win you a contest by himself, but he's been losing you contests at a much more frequent rate. Travis Kelce on the other hand has been a bit more consistent even if it isn't up to his standards. He is still less then a month removed from a 44 DK point outing and is coming off of three straight double digit DK point games. My only real concern is that Pitt has allowed the 3rd fewest TE TDs this season and not really many DK points. Kelce did not play in that Week 16 matchup against Pitt so there isn't much to go off of, but it goes without saying Byron Pringle ($3,900) carried his end of the bargain in that one. He put up a 6/75/2 stat line but again that was without Kelce and a limited Hill. His role will certainly be lower here, but I still think his price is decent and he is the clear WR2 in the offense now. He is still getting decent targets even with Kelce and Hill, so he is fine as a punt play. My only real draw back with Pringle is this game could get out of hand early and if he isn't a part of that early blowout production, then you might not see him score much at all. You also have Mecole Hardman ($4,100) and Demarcus Robinson ($3,300) to consider. Hardman just seems like the Tyreek fill in at this point. While he does have a high ceiling, it is more if Hill is limited or out. If anything comes out about Hill being limited or he does miss this game magically, then load up on Hardman. Robinson on the other hand seems to have his own role which isn't exactly a large one so be hesitant there. He doesn't have a single game over 3 catches this season, so you would need a bomb or a TD for him to be viable. I would likely pass on him here. Lastly, the backfield is kind of a mess because we have no clue by Sunday whether Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,600) is going to play. If he does end up suiting up, fade the backfield all together because it will likely be a committee approach. However, if he is out or said to be limited, Darrell Williams ($5,500) actually holds a good bit of value. He is cheap, should be in a solid game script, and has some receiving upside as well. I wouldn't expect Derrick Gore ($4,000) to get any serious playoff run here, so don't worry about him.

UPDATE: Clyde is out so Darrell is firmly in play. I think it is a crap shoot between him, Sony and Singletary for me.

Game #6: Cardinals @ Rams (LAR -4, 49.5) MON 8:15 PM EST

I think this is the game I am most looking forward to just based on expectations. We have two divisional rivals who split the season series and have dynamic offenses with different styles. The Rams are more on the pass happy side with Stafford slinging it to set up the run. The Cardinals typically use the run game to set up the pass more with the loss of Hopkins. This game has the 2nd highest implied total so there is a lot to like. I think my only hesitancy is that both defenses from a full season perspective defended the opposing offense's strength very well. The Rams are great against the run which is where Arizona is strong and the Cards are good against the pass which is where the Rams are strong. Either way I think this will be a great matchup with a few standout DFS plays. Starting with the Cards, Kyler Murray ($7,200) is a bit pricey for my liking, so I don't think I end up playing him. The key to ARI winning will be Kyler limiting the turnovers. In the loss to the Rams this season he had 2 INTs and no TD passes. In the win, he had 2 pass TDs and no INTs. The weapons at Kyler's disposal aren't nearly at the same caliber as Stafford, but I still think they are more than serviceable. Starting with Christian Kirk ($5,300) and Zach Ertz ($4,700), these guys will really have to step it up if they want to have a chance here. Kirk has been pretty steady as of late with 9+ targets in 3 straight games prior to the final game against SEA. I do not think they have Ramsey shadow him or anything, so he should still get efficient targets and an off chance at a TD. My only concern is in the two games against LAR he put up 3/86 and 1/5... Those numbers are not good at all even if Hopkins was active in both. Hopkins did eat up 13 and 7 targets in those two matchups, so there is a lot to go around. I like the price, target share and upside so I think he is more than in play. The ceiling just might be capped a bit against a tougher Ram's defense. As for Ertz, the Rams are middle of the pack in terms of TE production allowed, but they don't allow a ton of TDs. He put up 5/42 in his only meeting against them this season which is fine. I just don't know if it can stand up to some other TE's on this slate and what their implied production could be. I think both Kirk and Ertz are "fine", but I personally won't be playing them. Only if you are going 20 max or higher would I consider. Next up you have AJ Green ($4,900) and Antoine Wesley ($3,300) who pretty much make up the rest of the receiving targets. Green just can't seem to get it going, failing to score since Week 6. However, his two games against the Rams were actually very solid with 5/67/1 and 7/102. He seems to have a thing for being the open guy against them, so maybe as a contrarian option rolling with Green isn't the worst idea. I don't think he gets a ton of the Ramsey coverage, so efficient looks shouldn't be an issue. I actually think I really like him here. As for Wesley, I think the TD upside will have the Rams putting Ramsey on him in the red zone or atleast trying to. He has filled the Hopkins role quite well, but this just doesn't seem like the spot for him. Lastly, if Rondale Moore ($3,700) is active, I really wouldn't go there, but it will chew into Wesley's snaps a bit so probably steer clear of both. As for the backfield, we really don't know the availability of James Conner ($6,300) quite yet. He missed Thursday's practice, but they don't play until Monday. If he is a go, I don't like the price and the Rams are decent against the run. However if he sits, the Chase Edmonds ($5,000) is definitely in play. He is much cheaper, gets a lot of receiving work and will probably be in the game on about every play. He put up 12/120 in the first meeting with Conner also putting up 18/50/2. If he can manage to get half or a third of those combined he would become a steal at this price. Just keep an eye on that news and if you are running a full 6 game slate lineup, possibly roll with CEH or Darrell in your lineups and if they both end up playing, rotate to Edmonds and hope for solid ownership leverage and massive upside.

The Rams are a bit trickier just because they have a ton of great weapons for Matthew Stafford ($6,300) to use. The Cardinal's secondary is solid at not allowing explosive pass plays. I love Stafford's price, but his play as of late has been suspect. 2+ INTs in 3 straight games is not a recipe you want to take into the playoffs. I would probably look elsewhere, but if you are running the showdown Monday slate I guess he is fine. Cooper Kupp ($9,000) is the most expensive player on the slate for a good reason. He scored fewer than 20 DK points only 3 times this season and one of those was against ARI. In the other game he put up 34 DK points so I think if you can fit him in then you always want to. However, with limited value and most teams trusting their studs, I don't know if you will be able to. Similar to what I said about Deebo, you would need that 30+ DK point game for him to be truly viable here. I think the Cards go into this with the mindset of "double Kupp" and let the other guys beat us. That opens up a lot of things for Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,100), Van Jefferson ($4,700) and Tyler Higbee ($4,100). Those 3 guys are about the only other ones they even use or target. Beckham has been a TD machine since coming to the Rams with 5 TDs in his last 7 games. He went 6/77/1 in the first meeting against ARI, so I think he is more than fine here. He got 7 targets to Jefferson's 3, so I would probably lean OBJ here. You also have to factor in that OBJ is playing north of 90% of the snaps compared to Jefferson's ~50%. As for Higbee, the Cardinals have been incredibly at slowing TE's thanks to Isaiah Simmons so I would probably just fade him here. Stick with Kupp or OBJ and that be that. As for the backfield, Sony Michel ($5,400) has pretty much taken over the backfield with now Cam Akers just spelling him from time to time. I love the price and usage they are giving him so he is a great option on the slate. You can't deny nearly 20 touches/game at such a cheap price tag. Even if it isn't efficient all he needs is one TD and you pretty much are looking at him being optimal (unless Edmonds goes nuts). All in all, I do like this Rams offense quite a bit, but more as one offs.


I can't think of playing anyone other than Buccaneers ($3,400), Chiefs ($3,300), Bills ($3,200) or Bengals ($3,000). The others are probably going to be allowing a solid amount of points and it just doesn't seem smart.
Thanks for reading and best of luck!

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