NFL Week 14 Top Stacks

The NFL Season is which means another week of figuring out which stacks we want to use in our lineups. As a long time NFL DFS player, it has become quite apparent studying winning lineups for hundreds of contests that Team and Game Stacking is the ticket to the top. Focusing in on specific stacks based on Vegas implied totals, spreads and pricing can give us the most optimal stacks for any given week!
For lineups, projections, tools, and MORE, sign-up for Heating Up NFL Premium today! It will give you access to our exclusive playbook that has everything you need to dominate this NFL Season. Use promo code NFL 2021 at check-out for 25% off your first month! For more details, click the link below!
If you enjoy the content, be sure to subscribe to our YouTube, follow us on Twitter, and join our FREE Discord channel where we discuss lineups and slates right up until lock! I look forward to seeing you in the chat!
If you would like to take a break from Daily Fantasy and want to take a shot at beating Vegas, check out MyBookie. It is a completely legal sports book that allows you to bet/parlay just about any prop you would find on the other big websites!

Top Stack #1: Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This game has the highest implied total by close to 5 points, so at the very least it would be smart to get someone from this game. I think it is easily stackable with great options on both sides of the ball. I like to start with the Bucs side and Tom Brady ($7,600). I think he has been playing a bit better lately and the Bill's defense without Tre White isn't that elite. They haven't faced a top notch offense like Tampa in a few weeks which is part of the reason their defensive stats are so skewed. Tom has been throwing a ton lately, notching 45+ passes in 2 of the last 3 week. I fully expect that to continue in this one to keep up the Bills potent offense which bodes extremely well for DFS output. His main targets in the pass game are clearly Mike Evans ($6,600) and Chris Godwin ($7,100) who have been on a tear recently. Starting with Godwin, he has four 20+ DK point games in the last six weeks with three over 28 DK points. He is getting a ton of targets as well to go with it. He got a season high 17 last week which might not be replicable, but it just shows that Tom trusts him and I expect close to if not over 10 targets for this one. He might have a bit tougher of a matchup against Taron Johnson who has only allowed 25/220/1 this season. I actually think I would prefer Mike Evans here who double digit targets in two of the last three games and 17 DK points in two of the last three as well. I think Tre White would have guarded him if he was playing, but that won't be the case. He is also on a TD skid which I could definitely see ending here. He will likely see either Levi Wallace or Dane Jackson who are 6' and 5'11'' respectively. I don't think they can contend with his height, so we could see a few Mike Evans jump balls that should efficiently pay off this week. After those two, you get Rob Gronkowski ($6,000) and Leonard Fournette ($7,400) who have been just about the only other people involved lately. He has 8+ targets in each game since his return which for TE's is elite. My biggest concern is given the Bills elite safety play, they have allowed the fewest TE DK points in the league this season. Given the steep price and limited upside in this matchup, I think I would lean the other options first. Lastly, Fournette is in a favorable spot with the Bills on the season being worse against the run then the pass. He gets almost 80% of the backfield touches and a ton of targets, so I am perfectly fine with rolling him out. I think playing him comes down to if you want to pay this price for him or take the value backs that are in the $6,000 range. Other than these four, I really can't find another option for the Bucs that would get enough volume to be worth playing. Stick to the studs with Tampa.

As for the Bills, I think you have a ton of options to roll out starting with Josh Allen ($7,800). The pass attempts haven't been as plentiful as Brady which is why I like the Tampa side more. He still gets enough in the run game to keep up and I think this should be a back and forth type game. Stefon Diggs ($8,100) has been the clear WR1 this season, but lately the targets haven't been as high as I would like. He is still a monster and can beat this porous Buc's secondary, so I am still think he can have a ceiling game here. Outside of the last mess of a game, he has been putting up great stats with 18+ DK points in three straight games. There will likely be a split in CB matchup so that will be tough pin point a specific matchup, but Tampa is not good in the secondary so I think he can still thrive. Next up is Cole Beasley ($5,000) who should fit this matchup a lot better than Emmanuel Sanders ($4,900). He is more of a short yardage threat and with Tampa's strong safety combo taking away the deep shots, they will likely have to pepper the short yardage options over a deep threat like Sanders. Beasley hasn't been seeing as many targets with Dawson Knox ($5,000) back, but I think they can trickle up here given Tampa's 4th lowest DADOT (6.8 yards). That means against Tampa the depth of target is only 6.8 yards, so again the short yardage guys should be seeing more targets. From a contrarian stand point, Beasley should be a great option. As for Knox, he likely will bounce back a bit here as well, but man is it tough to forget some of the blunders from last week. He dropped a few passes and had a crucial false-start penalty which kind of ruined the game for them. Tampa has still allowed the 9th most TE DK points this season, so if the targets will still be there then he can certainly pay off. If you want to take a real dart throw, Gabe Davis ($3,500) will probably play around 35% of the snaps and get 3-4 targets. You would likely need a long TD or something to make him viable, but this is the perfect environment for that to happen. I just see that DADOT number and get a bit scared that his floor could easily be 0 DK points.
Favorite Stack: Tom Brady - Mike Evans - Stefon Diggs - (Leonard Fournette)

Top Stack #2: Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Football Team

One thing I love to look for as part of my main stack is two teams playing with defenses that are bad against the pass. That gives you the best upside for QB/WR duos to have ceiling games. Well, Washington and Dallas come in allowing the 3rd and 5th most passing yards in the league, so this could turn into a gun slinger matchup. It has the 3rd highest implied total on the slate and you have some serious weapons on both sides to put up huge numbers. I think I would only start with Dak Prescott ($6,700) who should have all of his guys back. He has been a bit of a rollercoaster lately, either scoring over 25 DK points or under 13, but no in between. I think the matchup against Washington will bring the peak of the coaster and we see a ceiling spot potentially. CeeDee Lamb ($7,200) and Amari Cooper ($5,900) have prime matchups against William Jackson and Kendall Fuller who have been pretty atrocious this season. Fuller is giving up a ton of catches and yards while Jackson has been giving up the TD's, so you can't go wrong with either. I think the pricing is what makes me start questioning which to go with. Cooper should be back to normal this week so I think we see his targets normalize, but will it be enough to catch Lamb. Lamb got a whopping 13 targets last week compared to Cooper's 2, but they said that Cooper was limited. I will take that to heart and assume he gets back to the 5-8 target range. That is actually pretty solid and anything more would just be a bonus. I think you are really banking on his snap % to increase back to normal because last week it was under 40% and Michael Gallup ($5,500) was in the 90% range. That needs to change for Cooper to be an option and I do think it regresses back to the norm. Gallup on the other hand is quite interesting. The only time that all 3 played together (Lamb, Cooper, and Gallup) was Week 1 where Cooper led with 88%, Lamb with 73% and Gallup in at 60%. I think that alone speaks volumes to how Gallup will still be used quite a bit and should see somewhere in the 75% range. Now a lot of this hinges on if the Cowboys come out and announce if Cooper will be getting his normal workload. If they say he is going to continue to be limited then I would certainly love Gallup. If I were to rank them right now, I think it goes Lamb > Gallup > Cooper for me. After that, Dalton Schultz ($5,400) is certainly in play. He has scored 9+ DK points in each of the last 3 weeks but that was without Cooper and Lamb for portions. Washington is pretty middle of the pack when it comes to TE DK points allowed, so nothing to count Schultz out there. I think he is a decent contrarian option, but I would go the three WRs first over him more than likely. As for the backfield, I think the Tony Pollard ($6,400) injury scares me a ton so I wouldn't go there. However, if he is out then Ezekiel Elliot ($7,300) is in a great spot to get a ton of work all over the field. He would likely get in the 13-18 carry range and 4-7 targets. At this price that gives you a ton of upside, but the real question is can he outproduce the value RB's who are much cheaper. I still think yes, but only if Pollard is out or limited.

On the other side of the ball, Washington has weapons but none as important as Terry McLaurin ($7,000). I fully expect him to get a healthy dose of Trevon Diggs and he really hasn't been getting the targets I would want out of someone this expensive. He has just one game over 12 DK points in the last five, but even against Diggs I think he can have a ceiling game. Diggs has been prone to allowing big plays this season despite the massive INT numbers. Dallas has given up the 4th most explosive pass plays in the league which bodes well for McLaurin. While he might be boom or bust, this lines up really well for McLaurin to boom and not bust. Then you have a slew of guys that quite frankly let you down more than they actually do anything for you. Adam Humphries ($3,500), DeAndre Carter ($3,400) and Curtis Samuel ($3,600) have all gotten under 2 targets in multiple weeks over the last month or so. Making a call on which could potentially pop makes no sense, so it seems to me like McLaurin is the only option for the WRs. As for the TE position, we might only have John Bates ($3,000) with Ricky Seals-Jones questionable and Logan Thomas now on IR. Bates would get a ton of snaps and probably a good amount of targets in the event that RSJ sits. I think the price makes it easy to fit him in as a run back if you go the Dak/Lamb route. I still think I would take McLaurin over him for the ceiling, but I think Bates is a great cheap TE option regardless as long as RSJ is out. If he ends up playing then I think the split is enough to make Terry the only good option. The backfield is the last spot to look and if JD McKissic ($5,000) ends up playing then it will likely take Antonio Gibson ($6,000) out of the equation. Dallas is actually 3rd in the league in rush yards allowed at under 100 yards/game. I think Gibson would need that receiving upside to make him an intriguing play and McKissic would chew into that greatly. I think from a game script perspective this actually looks really good for McKissic to get a good amount of work with Washington playing from behind. It really just feels and reads like McLaurin and Bates to a certain extent are the only good-great run back options with Gibson if McKissic is out as an interesting option as well. Everything else is risky. I guess I should finish off by saying whichever WR gets the Anthony Brown coverage is due to get a few PI calls called for them, but that doesn't help for DFS so take that with a grain of salt.
Favorite Stack: Dak Prescott - CeeDee Lamb - Terry McLaurin - (Michael Gallup)

Top Stack #3: San Francisco 49ers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Strap in because this one is a doozy. Tons of injuries across the board and Q tags, but man does this one have ceiling written all over it. Cincinnati has the 27th ranked pass defense this season, so the 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,800) should be able to move the ball quite efficiently downfield. They give up the 8th highest completion % and 6th highest pass attempts/game as well as the 4th fewest rush attempts/game. With Elijah Mitchell more than likely out, I expect them to throw the ball a ton if not the most they have all season. He has three major weapons to throw to in Deebo Samuel ($8,000), George Kittle ($6,900) and Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800). Deebo would likely get in the 7-10 carry range with no Mitchell so he has that floor right there. Then pile on the receiving upside and he could be the highest scoring player on the slate. They will likely move him around enough that there isn't a definitive CB matchup to look at, but all we need to know is the Bengals allow nearly 260 pass yards/game which again is the 5th most in the NFL. Kittle is coming off of a career game, putting up a 9/181/2 stat line. However that was without Deebo, so that will 100% come down a good bit. I still think he will be heavily involved regardless. It all comes down to do you want to pay that price tag for Kittle when Kelce is in the best TE spot on the slate for just $500 more? I could see the argument for anyone saying yes, but I think you are much better off with Deebo here. As for Aiyuk, I am extremely skeptical with only 6 targets and 3 catches last week despite no Deebo. I still think there is an avenue for him to have a ceiling game, but this might not be the spot. I just think they can run it and feed Kittle/Deebo enough to filter him out once again. As for the backfield, no Mitchell again puts Deebo in a good spot for some carries but the real winner is Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4,400). He is about as cheap as they come and with Hasty never seeing more than 5 carries in a game, I could see Wilson getting 15-20 carries here. The Bengals have been very good against the run, allowing the 4th fewest in the league this season. I think given the price and volume alone he can still pay off so I am fine with it. He just seems more like a one off option since he negatively correlates with the passing attack. If Mitchell does end up playing, then fade the backfield all together and just stick with Garoppolo/Deebo/Kittle.

On the flipside, Joe Burrow ($6,000) has a ton of weapons to get the ball to, but can he get it there is the question. He hurt his finger last week and has practiced this week with no real worries, but still something to note. Couple that injury with the fact that the 49ers allow the 5th fewest pass attempts in the league makes me think the better stacking option is on the 49er's side. You have Tee Higgins ($6,400) who seems to have taken over as the WR1 lately with his 14 and 8 targets in the last two weeks and 26+ DK points in each game. The Niners run a ton of zone coverage as well, so finding a CB matchup is virtually pointless to look at. I think they trust him a ton in the red zone which makes him my favorite run back option. He is also still cheaper than JaMarr Chase ($6,900) who has been far from great lately. He has had less than 13 DK points in each of the last five games which at this price is not good. The targets have been there, but the TD upside seems to have run dry. Teams are blanket covering him quite a bit which is why Higgins has been so productive. If that is going to continue here then give me Higgins once again. As for Tyler Boyd ($5,000), I don't have much faith in his TD upside and the targets have been hit or miss. I would stick to just Higgins. Lastly, you have Joe Mixon ($7,700) who faltered last week, but that was more due to them being blown out early. I don't think that will happen here so he should bounce back quite nicely. The 49ers have allowed the 4th most rush TDs this season, so inevitably Mixon will fall into the end zone this game. Pair that with the pass catching upside and he could also push for being one of the higher scoring RB's on the slate. I think him and Higgins are 1A and 1B as run back options, so maybe run a similar stack, but swap Higgins and Mixon. To round it off, the 49ers have had the 2nd best TE defense in the league this season, so CJ Uzomah ($3,000) is not in play for me this week.
Favorite Stack: Jimmy Garoppolo - Deebo Samuel - Tee Higgins - (Joe Mixon)
Favorite Contrarian Stack: Cam Newton - DJ Moore - Russell Gage
Thanks for reading and best of luck!

Leave a Reply

Heating Up DFS