NFL - Cowboys vs. Seahawks Showdown Preview
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I need to revive the community and rebuild from the bottom up. The old Heating Up server had nearly 800 users and only 40-50 were ever active. I want to rebuild that with those that truly just want to have a place to go to talk sports and win some money through having each other’s backs and helping everyone out. This is more than just me… it is about US so come join us today!
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Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
With pricing being fairly inflated, you are definitely going to have to take some stands on who you roster and fade. I think that generally means that CPTN ownership will get spread out. It being a 9 point spread will also drive up the Cowboys ownership so there are a couple different angles you could take to be different tonight. Regardless of those factors, there is one guy that really stands out for me and that is Tony Pollard ($14,700 CPTN). He is finally regressing back to the expected baseline after barely scoring TDs despite being in the top 5 in the league in red zone touches. The Seahawks have given up the 5th most rush TDs this season at well over 1 rush TD/game. Any time a team is expected to win by that much the run game is usually going to be the driving force. The skill set is there and he is finally starting to produce again so I would be capitalizing on his somewhat cheaper price now. The only concern is there have been times the Cowboys even in blowouts just continue to push the ball through the air. That is what has me liking Brandin Cooks ($12,000 CPTN) a ton for this game. He is finally trending up as well with around 75% of the snaps. He is a big play threat and the Seahawks have been much more prone to allowing outside WR production vs out of the slot. CeeDee Lamb ($17,100 CPTN) has been playing out of the slot more often that Cooks, so he might be in a bit tougher of a spot, but both stand out for me. It is about a 50/50 split for Lamb and Cooks out of the slot and out wide but they are the main guys in the receiving game. Lamb’s price is the scary part for me. Way more often than not he pays off the price tag and is featured so heavily matchup doesn’t really matter. However, he will see a good bit of Jamal Adams out of the slot who has only allowed 0.13 FP/RR this season which is actually tops in the league. I think there is a path to him disappointing slightly, but I like him at CPTN because this season he has been pretty much matchup proof. Lamb is definitely the safer play with Cooks being the high risk/high reward CPTN play. If you want to be a bit more unique, Tyler Lockett ($10,800 CPTN) is severely underpriced for the upside he has. The Cowboys secondary is great don’t get me wrong. However, they are beatable. The last two weeks the “possession” receivers have been the ones to produce against that defense with Curtis Samuel and Adam Thielen putting up 9/100 and 8/74 respectively. Lockett fills a similar role with Metcalf being more of a down the field threat which is a bit easier for the Cowboys to stop. He definitely looks to be in a better spot and the Seahawks will have to throw the ball to keep up and KW likely out. Those 4 feel like the best bets at CPTN with everyone else just a small step below. Overall I do think that CPTN could be plenty of different guys.
Cowboys
The Cowboys are 9 point favorites at home with a 29 point implied team total. They play extremely well at home so there is a strong chance a lot of Cowboys are able to produce tomorrow with most being supported by the MVP level of play from Dak Prescott ($11,000) as of late. At home, he is averaging a whopping 28 DK points/game which very well could be tops in the league. Honestly, I didn’t mention him above but by all means you can run him at CPTN. The only reason why I think he could come back down to earth a bit is the Seahawks rush defense is definitely their main weakness and they have a very solid RB who is trending in Tony Pollard ($9,800) who can certainly take away from Dak’s ceiling if he is on his game. Not that they both can’t get there, but Pollard does have an effect on Dak’s true ceiling. Say he rushes for 2 rush TDs. That’s ~14 points out of the 29 point implied total that can’t go to Dak. Now they can both be played together if say Pollard gets 6/40/1 through the air and they benefit each other. What I am trying to say is given the expected big win, there are plenty of narratives where Dak gets there and Pollard doesn’t, Pollard gets there and Dak might not and they both get there together. Just be sure to construct your lineups to fit your narrative. Last example before I move on to the rest of the team: If you go Pollard CPTN with Dak UTIL, maybe pair that with just one Cowboys pass catcher because the narrative that makes that work is Pollard scores a receiving TD or has multiple catches. That would take away from the other Cowboy receiving options and if Dak is UTIL he probably brings one catcher and Pollard with him. Dak has plenty of receiving options but none of them will touch the target share that CeeDee Lamb ($11,400) will have. Over the last 5 weeks he is averaging 12 targets/game and close to 26 DK points/game. I see no reason they don’t give him 9+ targets just like he has gotten in each of the last 5 games. My only slight concern is the matchup isn’t the best. Lamb is running out of the slot at about a 50% clip and Jamal Adams is the primary slot CB. He is allowing a league low 0.13 FP/RR this season which could cause Lamb issues. I expect the Cowboys to move him out of the slot to avoid this which is where the Seahawks are more prone to allowing yards. For that reason I expect Lamb to still be productive. I feel similar for Brandin Cooks ($8,000) who runs out of the slot around 40% of the time. He is more boom bust though which is definitely something I like to target in GPPs. The upside is there clearly at a much cheaper price tag. Just be aware he is prone to busting. After that the next guy in line currently seems to be Michael Gallup ($3,800) but he is extremely volatile with the target share and only playing on around 35% of the snaps. The price isn’t really that cheap either so I don’t know how much I would want to play him, but he will be solid leverage. Then Jalen Tolbert ($3,000) has actually played on more snaps then Gallup in each of the last 3 weeks with 3+ targets in each of the last 4 games and 5 targets in 3 of the last 4. If I am playing a cheap WR it would be him. A lot of people will chase to Kavontae Turpin ($2,600) who scored last week which might bolster his ownership. He has been an electric gadget guy for the Cowboys this season but he barely plays. He has played a total of 19 snaps in the last two weeks. Yeah when he is on the field they try to get him the ball but there is a lot of risk when he is this price. When he was under $1,000 it was a little bit easier to take on the risk. Now it is just unrealistic unless he scores on one of the 3 times he touches the ball. Don’t get cute with Jalen Brooks ($600). The only reason he is playing is they have been in massive blowout scripts over the last few weeks. The TE group is kind of a mess right now with Jake Ferguson ($6,200) playing on about 70% of the snaps. His snap share is solid but the target share has dipped a bit. I still think this is a product of the game scripts he has been involved in. The ownership might come down and if that is the case I would love to go back to him hoping he regresses back to his season average. The big concern is the Seahawks haven’t allowed a lot of TE production this season, only allowing 1 TD to the position on the season. I still like him a lot for leverage, but I know the downside. Then you have Luke Schoonmaker ($1,800) who is getting a target or two a week but nothing of substance and on just 40% of the snaps and a low route share, I just can’t see it. You would need the random lucky TD for him to get there which isn’t predictable at all. I wouldn’t get cute with Sean McKeon ($200) either but he does get snaps. The last position group to wrap up is the RB room which has Rico Dowdle ($4,200) questionable but I fully expect him to play. He has been a big factor this year spelling Pollard. I actually think he is at an affordable price for the points he has been putting up, but be aware if this game stays close for whatever reason I don’t think he can be optimal. His upside is in blowouts which is why he has been doing well as of late. They have been dominant the last couple of weeks. If your narrative is Cowboys cruise on the back of Dak and Co., maybe fading Pollard and pairing that Dak + weapons stack with Dowdle could be a smart move. That is about the only way I would run him out in a lineup. If he were to be out somehow, you could consider Deuce Vaughn ($200) for value for sure even with Pollard. Honestly if that were the case I would just lock in Pollard and probably find value elsewhere but he Deuce would open up a lot of options.
Seahawks
The Seahawks are 9 point underdogs on the road with a 19 point implied team total. This is one of the hardest places in the league to play especially on prime time. Geno Smith ($9,200) is going to have his hands full figuring out this vicious defense. Atleast he has plenty of weapons to get the ball and will be in a trailing script most of the game. The big problem is against a competent defense he really struggles. Against SF he scored 8 DK points, BAL he scored 4 DK points and CLE 15 DK points. The only decent score was against CLE but he put up a game winning drive with 1 minute left where he got 6 of the 15 DK points just in that minute. He could have gotten stopped easily against that defense and scored like 9 DK points. I just don’t see any route that he gets there other than the Seahawks miraculously pulling something out their rears and breaking down this defense that no one has seemed to figure out. Not to mention they will be without Kenneth Walker and utilizing a rookie RB. I think my preferred build would be 5/1 or 4/2 Cowboys builds with a kicker or two position players from the Seahawks as UTIL guys over playing Geno and a pass catcher which takes away from the salary you can use on Cowboys guys. The best thing you can get with Geno or even a Seahawks stack is atleast you will get massive leverage over the field. He will come in lower owned than a competent QB should which in GPPs does give me interest. Even if I think he is going to suck, I need a couple lineups including him because its the NFL and any team can win on any given day. I talked about it above, but my favorite option is likely to be Tyler Lockett ($7,200) who is extremely underprice for the upside he provides. He is likely to see a lot of old man Stephon Gilmore who there is no doubt he can beat. It is just a much better spot for him compared to DK Metcalf ($9,600) who is $2,600 more expensive and quite frankly hasn’t looked any better than Lockett. Just comparing him to AJ Brown, the Cowboys were the first team to limit him to under 75 yards since Week 2 and have since really caused his receiving numbers to regress. They do very well against big bodied WRs so the odds are stacked against DK here. Coach speak is always something that I tend to listen to but not always follow. The coaches are saying they want to get Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,200) the ball more and I tend to agree with them. He was being touted up by Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave to be the best OSU WR while they were there and those two guys are studs (if you give them a competent QB). His snap share is growing steadily and as have the targets with 5+ in 3 of the last 4 games. Like I said with Lockett, the Cowboys are much more susceptible to allowing production to shiftier, slot guys and JSN is running out of the slot on 68% of his routes. This could be the spot he shines looking at the numbers so I like him a lot for leverage. I think the price is a touch high for what people will want to spend as well which should keep his ownership in check. After these three, you do have Jake Bobo ($1,600) and to a much lesser extent Dee Eskridge ($200) who will get snaps. I just don’t see this as the spot to play them quite frankly. Even in a pass happy script they won’t get enough volume to get you there. Look elsewhere for punts. The TE group is always a mess on this team. 3 guys play north of 25% of the snaps, run routes and touch the ball. Predicting which will be the feature is never easy. More often than not it will be Noah Fant ($3,200), but he hasn’t gotten more than 3 targets since Week 3. I guess the saving grace is the Cowboys defense has allowed the most TE TDs this season at 6. If there is ever a time to maybe run out Fant it would be here as a massive leverage piece. The price is tolerable and the upside could be had if they can exploit the one weakness this opposing defense might have. Will Dissly ($1,400) and Colby Parkinson ($800) will also get their fair share of snaps, but it probably won’t amount to much at all. Dissly is slightly intriguing because he is more of a pass catcher in nature whereas Parkinson is more of a blocker. I just don’t see the appeal unless you are running 150 lineups. If you want to try to get sneaky and run Zach Charbonnet ($6,800) who did get 4 targets and could probably get more than that in this game I wouldn’t try to stop you. I think he is talented, just not as talented or polished as KW who is out tonight. The real upside would have to come in the passing game with dump offs to try to extend plays. I think he makes for decent leverage and should get some work on the ground. It all depends on if they can keep this game in check and not let it become a blowout. Really Charbs is blowout proof because if they keep this game close, he will get touches on the ground. If it blows out and they have to pass given the strengths of Dallas’ secondary he will get dump offs. I think he is a great play tonight at marginally low ownership. Deejay Dallas ($1,200) is also in the mix. He fumbled last game which I think put him in the dog house. That is why we saw Charbs get 88% of the snaps to just 13% for Dallas. I expect that to come up to around a 65/35 split which really makes Dallas intriguing. He is a known pass catcher which is great for PPR formats like DK. It all hinges on if he can get out of the dog house though. If they just want to ride out the rookie Charbonnet I don’t see a reason not to. He makes for a sneaky GPP play and would really make you different if you roster him.
DST and K
To play Dallas DST ($5,600) or not to play Dallas DST… That is the real question. They average 16 DK points at home which is best in the league and this Seahawks offense, specifically Geno, has not looked good recently and is prone to turning the ball over. Again, I am a law of averages guy so I don’t expect a defense TD to be scored every week but somehow Dallas or should we say Daron Bland take one to the house more often than not. I think they will come way over owned and for that reason I will be off of them. However, I don’t want that to deter you from playing them. I do think they can get there with no defensive TD. Against below average offenses (which the Seahawks have played like as of late) they have scored north of 10 DK points in every contest. Fading them would give you decent leverage. As for the Seahawks DST ($3,400), I just don’t think I can get there with how Dak has been playing specifically at home. They are more than likely scoring 30 points which would mean that unit would need a decent amount of sacks or turnovers to get there and there is value at the bottom that only need a couple of catches to beat out what I project the Seahawks DST to score. The kickers are always interesting, but since they elevated the pricing on them it has been a bit tougher to fit them in. Brandon Aubrey ($4,800) hasn’t scored less than 6 DK points all season so he seems like an incredibly safe play tonight and has scored over 10 DK points plenty of times. I like him a good bit. Jason Meyers ($4,400) has also been incredible consistent as of late, averaging 15 DK points in the last 3 games. My only fear is there are plenty of avenues where the Cowboys just smash the Seahawks offense and he doesn’t get many opportunities to kick FGs. I think the price makes it easier to fit him in so he is fine to me, but just know the downsides are there for him if the Seahawks offense can’t move the ball.
My Narratives
Load up on Cowboys
If you play Dallas DST, go with Aubrey as well
Pollard > Lamb
Lockett > DK
If I am running a Seahawk it is more than likely Lockett, Charbs or JSN
Punts would be Fant, Tolbert or Dallas (if I don’t go Charbs)
Cowboys 5/1 or 4/2
Cowboys win comfortably 36-13
