NFL - 49ers vs. Giants Showdown Preview
Wow does it feel good to be back providing content to the amazing community that I tirelessly worked to serve over the last few years. I took some time off to focus on some personal things and am finally feeling ready to return. This time there is no money grab or attempt to “buy your services”. I just want to do this for me because at the end of the day I started this to provide free content that I think can help others. It is as simple as that. I think I got lost in trying to make Heating Up a business like some of the other big Daily Fantasy websites when I should have just done what brought me success from the beginning.
I need to revive the community and rebuild from the bottom up. The old Heating Up server had nearly 800 users and only 40-50 were ever active. I want to rebuild that with those that truly just want to have a place to go to talk sports and win some money through having each other’s backs and helping everyone out. This is more than just me… it is about US so come join us today!
**All article updates, injury news, cores and additional slate tips/strategies will be posted exclusively in the Discord or Twitter so feel free to join or follow!**
Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
The first thing that stands out to me is CMC is an ungodly high price and the other options are priced up as well. If you want to fit in more than 3 of them in your lineup you almost have to pay down at CPTN. This might sound insane but with the scoring output this team has, I really do think this could be a random spot where Jake Moody ($6,300 CPTN) could be a decent CPTN. I highly recommend against it, but there is an avenue where he kicks 2-3 FGs and 3-4 XPs and can get to 12-15 DK points just on that. The Giants defense is dreadful, so the hope is they flip a switch when the 49ers get to around the 30-35 or a penalty forces them to kick 50+ yard FGs, boosting Moody’s score. It is just a though to allow you to get everyone in, but it is extremely risky. The only other guy that I think could do it for you at a low price is Parris Campbell ($6,600 CPTN). I guess Hyatt falls into a similar bucket, but is just a bit higher priced. Campbell gets WR3 snaps, but is targeted just about the same as Hodgins and Slayton who are wayyy more expensive. Maybe he breaks one of those for a TD and can be optimal at CPTN as long as the high priced options don’t break the slate. I think the last one and only if Aiyuk is out would be Jauan Jennings ($7,200 CPTN) who could be thrust into a big role. He would be the WR2 and probably get a ton of routes. Just keep an eye on that injury news closely. It doesn’t happen often, but these punt CPTN options can be optimal from time to time and I think these two give you the best shot. Now we get to who I think actually has the best shot at being optimal. Oddly enough, I don’t think CMC can be optimal unless it is a 35-10 49ers win and he gets 3 of those TDs and the other 2 get spread out to other players or some rando. I am always a big fan of George Kittle ($9,900 CPTN) for his upside. When he hits it is a big hit and the ownership will probably be lower after the slow start to the season. He is still out there and running routes which is great. The targets will come eventually. You also have Aiyuk questionable which could open up some target share to go to Kittle. His downfall will always be he might be the best dual threat TE in the league when it comes to blocking as well. With the Giants having a great pass rush, they might use Kittle as a blocker more which is concerning. The price is low for the upside he provides and can get there on any given slate. That is what Kittle does. He has 4-5 huge boom games and the rest are middling or average. Next up would be the other TE Darren Waller ($11,100 CPTN) who with Barkley out could have his 15+ target game. The CPTN ownership will likely be very low given the 49ers pieces are much more appealing and the Giants have a 17.25 point implied team total. Without Barkley I could honestly see Waller getting close to 50% of the team targets. He was already leading the team in targets and will probably get a few of the Barkley targets. I think his ceiling is massive and even without Jones in your lineup I think it makes sense. Lastly, if Brandon Aiyuk ($12,900 CPTN) could be a massive leverage play up top with the Q tag looming. Week 1 he had a stellar game and last week passed the torch to Deebo to have his day. No reason he can’t pull that off again in this one. I think they will have to throw a little bit more with the Giants having a decent DL. Just keep an eye on his injury designation. If he is out then Deebo Samuel ($13,200 CPTN) probably becomes the chalk CPTN option.
49ers
The 49ers are massive 10 point favorites with an implied team total of 27.25 points. There is a big question mark that could have a big effect on how you attack this game and it is will Brandon Aiyuk play tonight? He has a shoulder injury which with it not being broken is probably a pain tolerance thing. I see him playing so take that into account when reading this. If that narrative changes then I will make updates in our Discord so click that link above if that is something you would like! I think you need to play Christian McCaffrey ($13,200) even at this massive price tag. There are ways to fit him in affordably, but at CPTN it is going to be tough to get more than 2 other plays with significant volume so keep that in mind. I don’t mind pairing him with his running mate Elijah Mitchell ($2.400) who got zero snaps last week. You might be asking why I would do this. The coaches said post game that was not their intention and they know they need to get Mitchell more involved. I think they try to get him atleast 7-10 touches and at this price you can’t go wrong. He also got 5 carries in Week 1 so it was weird to see him get blanked this past week. Maybe the field will be scared away after last week so you can get some leverage on him and pairing him with CMC will not be something people look to do either. Now that the backfield is out of the way, Brock Purdy ($9,400) probably has a great floor. He doesn’t make many mistakes and has some rushing upside, but the ceiling isn’t anything crazy in this matchup unless the Giants can keep it close. I just don’t see this being a close game. I think he is fine for tournaments, but I think the position players make a bit more sense at cheaper price tags. Deebo Samuel ($8,800) and Brandon Aiyuk ($8,600) can probably outscore him in some fashion and you don’t have to pair them in your lineup. I think people chase the Deebo game from Week 2 and considering Aiyuk has a Q tag going in will be iffy on playing him. Give me the ownership leverage in Aiyuk for tournaments any day of the week. Any analyst telling you they know which one of these guys will have the big game is smoking something strong because they don’t know. I would rather play the game and not the player so I like Aiyuk a ton here. George Kittle ($6,600) might be the forgotten about guy and we all know he can explode for a big game at any time. I will always love him for tournaments so no problem there. I don’t think he will get a ton of ownership either but I could be wrong (I don’t pay for ownership projections). I think at this price Jauan Jennings ($4,800) is just egregious when he really only saw an increase in snaps with Aiyuk banged up. If Aiyuk is out sure Jennings is a perfectly fine, but I wouldn’t play him with Aiyuk in. Lastly we get to the secondary plays on this team. Kyle Juszczyk ($400), Ronnie Bell ($200) and Charlie Woerner ($200) will get snaps in some capacity, but the only one I think worth playing is Juice. The man always seems to score in prime time slots and is the optimal play at less than 1% ownership in those SD spots like twice a season. I am probably not going to get to any of these guys, but they are interesting as massive leverage in tournaments.
Giants
The Giants are massive 10 point underdogs and have a very low implied team total of 17.25 points tonight. If you want massive leverage in tournaments just roll out more than 2 Giants and you are already different. I don’t think many people realize from a pricing perspective it might be wise to go to some of the cheaper Giants over the priced up 49ers. First off, I love Daniel Jones ($10,200) and Darren Waller ($7,400) tonight. They will get ownership don’t get me wrong. However, say you want to get CMC and Brock with a pass catcher. You literally can not do that and get Jones + Waller as well unless you completely punt CPTN (Elijah Mitchell and below). Even going CPTN Waller with Jones and then fading Brock gives you some leverage. The amount of volume Waller is going to get tonight with Saquon out is going to be insane. The 49ers are vulnerable over the middle of the field and boundaries which is where Waller can eat all game. I think the 49ers game plan will be once they get a lead they will have no problem letting Waller eat in short yardage. They will take away the downfield threats and force the Giants to not mess up. They are very prone to messing up, but the catches and short yardage plays add up. Jones will probably have to pass the entire game which is perfect for Waller tonight. The other pass catching options are so confusing to predict, but here goes nothing. I think Parris Campbell ($4,400) probably has the lowest floor but highest ceiling of the group. His price is cheap so I like him a good bit tonight. I also don’t think he will project well with Darius Slayton ($5,600) and Isaiah Hodgins ($6,400) probably being projected better, but from a point/$ standpoint I think Campbell has them beat. They all are going to be good leverage with the field going to other plays, but I will plant my flag on Campbell who plays just as many snaps and runs just as many routes with a cheaper price tag. We can’t not mention Jalin Hyatt ($5,200) and Sterling Shepard ($1,000) who got around 10-15 snaps each last game. I think they get around similar playing time here. Hyatt is just wayyyy too over priced for the volume he is getting. I think he is good leverage but even at this price I think he gets some ownership due to the big play ability. I won’t go there but I get it if you want to be a bit different. As for Shepard, I just think being the 5th WR in an offense getting limited snaps is not something I would want to roster. Give me a backup TE or RB that has more of a shot at a TD. That brings me to Daniel Bellinger ($800) who will see around 40% of the snaps and I think is a talented player. I love the idea of fading Waller for Bellinger in hopes he gets the TD which would give you massive leverage on the field. He is a solid tournament play for sure. Now what we have all been waiting for… this backfield. Matt Breida ($7,000) got the price jump and should get first crack with the starters. This could be a full blown committee approach, so at this price I will be very low on him. I don’t care that Kyren Williams just ran all over the 49ers last week. The Rams are a much better team than the Giants. I think if they hold to their word of splitting the carries he would need a big run or TD to even be viable better yet optimal at this price. Give me the discount on the backup RBs Gary Brightwell ($5,000) or Eric Gray ($1,400) who will certainly see the field in some capacity. Brightwell probably not because the price tag is disgusting. However, I don’t mind taking a shot on him in a limited capacity. Odds are though that none of the backfield is optimal. That is another plant flag for me: For the most part fade the backfield. You have to take a stand somewhere and that is where I am going.
DST and K
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 49ers DST ($5,800) be around 20-30% owned which for a defense is shocking. I am fine going there but at that ownership I don’t really like it. Maybe if you go there get different by pairing them with two Giants. We could always see Jones throw a pick 6, vaulting up the DST score but then continue to move the ball well to rack up points to Giant’s position players. I won’t be all in but I certainly won’t be all out. I wouldn’t touch the Giants DST ($3,200) at all. I think the 49ers put up some serious points. The kickers, Jake Moody ($4,200) and Graham Gano ($4,000), are both solid with a heavy lean to Moody. In low scoring games kickers get there more often than the position players. This game has a lower implied total so Moody has a decent chance at being in the optimal if that outcome happens. I probably won’t get to Gano though.
My Narratives
McCaffrey needs to be played but I think he is better suited for roster construction at UTIL
Campbell > Slayton and Hodgins
Aiyuk > Deebo (if he plays)
Play a TE (whether it is Kittle, Waller or Bellinger)
I love Daniel Jones and Darren Waller, but be prepared for one to let you down
At this ownership, I would probably fade the 49ers DST
3/3 or 4/2 49ers stacks
49ers win in a closer game than the field thinks 28-24
