NBA Warriors vs. Mavericks Showdown Preview (Game 4)

The NBA Playoffs have finally hit the Conference Finals so that means it is Showdown Time! This is one of my favorite periods given the game theory nature of Showdown and want to do everything I can to get you guys the information you need to separate yourself from the pack and be unique while also having a shot at 1st place. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
1. Price
2. Opponent DvP
3. Recent Minutes/Rotation Time
4. Usage Rate
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Series Overview

With the series all but over, do we see Luka put on a masterclass to atleast keep the Mavericks alive or do Steph and the Warriors recognize that the other series is likely to be a war of attrition and try to end this one now so they can get the extra couple of days rest? I actually lean with the Warriors bringing out the brooms tonight, but it could go either way. It all comes down to will more than one person step it up to help Luka out or do we see limited help once again. I think it is best to try to dissect this one from multiple angles on the pricing side to see if we can build a lineup that fits a narrative AND has upside.

Captain Picks

For Showdown slates it is always crucial that you get the CPTN correct or you won't stand a chance at the top prize. Usually the top 0.1-1% of the highest scoring lineups in a SD setting feature the same CPTN with varying UTIL spot choices to round out the lineup. Given the rotations should remain fairly tight, there might only be two roster constructions you can choose tonight. The 1st is a stars and scrubs approach. That is where you take a top 3 option at CPTN, follow it up with 3 more of the top 5 priced options, and round it out with two guys that are extremely cheap in hopes that the stars get 80%+ of the usage and you only need 3-10 DK points from the cheap guys to get you to the top. The 2nd option, which will likely be my personal approach, is a balanced approach. Usually it comes with taking a mid range CPTN option, then multiple high to mid priced options at UTIL and only have to lean on one cheaper option that still has scoring viability. I think once again the main build for tonight will be stars and scrubs. We saw the optimal feature two guys that scored under 10 DK points in Game 3 and the pricing didn't change all that much for this one. After crunching the numbers with my point projections, there is a clear 10-15 DK point gap between a balanced build and the stars and scrubs approach once again which is why I think the field follows in that direction. Knowing that, the leverage could come from a more balanced build which allows you to only punt one position. Regardless, here are some of the guys that I think have either a strong chance at being optimal or give you some leverage at the CPTN spot to be more unique.
Luka Doncic ($21,600 CPTN) or Stephen Curry ($17,400 CPTN)
These two show up in nearly 100% of the top 150 lineups in FC which I would imagine almost any other set of projections will do as well. That means they will probably be captained in atleast 60-70% of lineups tonight. Everything is in line for them to be optimal and the only way to probably be unique with both (one CPTN, one UTIL) would likely be to burn a ton of money. I like the idea of fading one of them, preferably Doncic, but I haven't messed around with builds yet. Either way, from a safety perspective I think you should get both of these guys in your lineups in some fashion or you risk falling WAY behind quick.
Andrew Wiggins ($12,300 CPTN)
We saw a slight price bump for this game but it is for a good reason. He has just been automatic in this series, posting 34, 35, and 47 DK points in the three games. I do envision him getting a good bit of ownership and will likely be the 3rd most popular CPTN, but again it is for a good reason. He is only the 5th most expensive player in the game where he should probably be the 4th or 3rd in general. He checks all of the boxes here so he makes for a great play once again.
Kevon Looney ($10,500 CPTN)
He is also playing great ball right now, getting 28+ minutes in all 3 games while also posting 25, 40 and 30 DK points in the series. I don't see anything that should get in the way of that and he is the cheapest option that I feel confident can produce consistently (unlike DFS or Bullock) and gives you enough CPTN value to not punt two spots. That is really all there is to it.

Utility Picks

Along with all of the CPTN options, the following players look to be a good value tonight for a number of different reasons (pricing, matchup, ownership leverage, etc.)
Klay Thompson ($9,200)
New game. Same analysis with the exact same price tag ironically enough. It really sucks that Klay is the most expensive guys outside of the top 2 because you could make an argument that anyone from him to DFS can score around the same amount of DK points so for Klay to be optimal he would have to go nuts and Steph underwhelm. That is certainly in the realm of possibilities, but getting Steph/Luka/Klay is really hard tonight without punting CPTN. I love him in GPPs for leverage if you fade Steph, but prepare for disappointment.
Jalen Brunson ($9,000)
Once again Brunson exceeds my expectations. I really should give him more credit. He has scored 28, 49 and 31 DK points this series which in the grade scheme of things isn't all that great given the price. He gives you a slight savings if you fade Steph and a massive savings from Luka (as well as leverage), but you likely are looking at a 15-20 DK point gap that you have to make up from the savings. I don't know if that is possible tonight. Similar to Klay, I love him for GPPs as leverage but prepare for disappointment.
Draymond Green ($8,000)
I want to like Green, but I think the price is just a bit too lofty. He is going to get the minutes and facilitate quite a bit, but the upside just doesn't seem to be there. A lot of the work down low is going to Looney right now. I would look elsewhere personally but he makes for an interesting pivot off of Wiggins who will get most all of the ownership in this range.
Jordan Poole ($7,600)
Same can be said for Poole here as I did for the last game. I am really not a fan of Poole's production as of late. His minutes have come down and he really has to get hot shooting to rack up points which isn't my forte. However, his ownership will be lower than that of Wiggins and Draymond. I can get down to that because his ceiling is in line with both of theirs. I still think it is risky with how close the ownership will likely be. Id lean Green first over both of them.
Dorian Finney-Smith ($6,600)
Same story for DFS here. Dorian Finney Smith is an overpriced Bullock in my opinion. He will get a ton of minutes and maybe a slightly higher usage rate compared to Bullock but for a much higher price tag. He should be in the mid 20% ownership range which is actually decent because DFS does have a ceiling. Good luck guessing when that ceiling will come though. He has a good bit to deal with in the paint with Draymond his natural defender. I just don't think this series is set up for him to be successful and the price is still too lofty.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,800)
I think the one surprise from Game 3 was Dinwiddie. He played exceptionally well, scoring 26 points but only picked up 3 peripherals. At this price if his shot goes cold he will bust hard. It was one of the first times he broke 24 DK points in a while and I don't think it is repeatable. I would likely fade here. I doubt he is optimal two games in a row.
Reggie Bullock ($5,800)
Bullock was a massive low in Game 3, shooting 0-10 from the field. I think the really interesting part was he still picked up 8 rebounds + assists and some steals which really does well for his floor. I have a lot of confidence in saying he won't go broke again and I actually like him for some leverage. I don't think many people go to him tonight being that he is literally the dead range. I think if you can fit him in it is worth taking a shot on him tonight with how unique your lineups will end up being.
Maxi Kleber ($4,200)
Kleber's price has come down a bit for good reason. He has been absolutely worthless for DFS this series only scoring 7, 12 and 7 DK points. The big kicker is the minutes are extremely solid. He is playing 25 and 33 minutes in the last two games. I don't know if they try to change that up because he is completely ineffective but that isn't something we will know before hand. I don't like the price even if he is playing. I would probably fade here.
Dwight Powell ($2,000)
Now Powell is a very interesting option here. He is super cheap now and pretty much only gets the starting 6 minutes of the game and then sits the whole time. I don't get the motive behind this but with how Looney is playing I think they try to give him some extra run. He might only need 6-8 DK points today to be optimal. I am fine going with him here as your punt if you want to get away from the bottom barrel plays below.
Davis Bertans ($2,600)
I feel the same for Bertans as I do Powell. He is cheap, can shoot and Kleber isn't effective at all. They might try to change things up which would lead to more Powell and Bertans. The important thing to note about Bertans is he can hit 3's and can get you back into the game with his shot. I feel like Powell can't do that for you. I wish he was a bit cheaper because the scoring has been pretty trash this series, but he can still get hot.
Moses Moody ($1,000)
Moody has taken all of the Damion Lee minutes of late, grabbing 10 and 16 minutes in the last two games. He gets almost no usage but atleast he is playing and he flat min. If you want Luka or Steph CPTN and want to double up on both then you might have to use Moody. That is really all there is to say. Don't expect north of 10 DK points but if he gets close to that then he likely will be optimal with how the usage shakes out.
Juan Toscano-Anderson ($1,000)
When Otto Porter went down they gave JTA a few minutes in the rotation. If he falls into a few rebounds and a put back or two he could be optimal over Moody who will have 3-4x the ownership. Just some food for thought.
Fades (for me):
Jonathan Kuminga, Frank Ntilikina
Thanks for reading and best of luck
Heating Up DFS