NBA Warriors vs. Mavericks Showdown Preview (Game 1)

The NBA Playoffs have finally hit the Conference Finals so that means it is Showdown Time! This is one of my favorite periods given the game theory nature of Showdown and want to do everything I can to get you guys the information you need to separate yourself from the pack and be unique while also having a shot at 1st place. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
1. Price
2. Opponent DvP
3. Recent Minutes/Rotation Time
4. Usage Rate
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Series Overview

This should be more of an offensive affair with neither team having a defensive option to stop the other team's top player (Luka and Steph). This definitely feels like a David vs. Goliath matchup with GS having much more experience compared to Luka and the Mavs. Regardless of that fact, I think this should be a close series. Luka is unstoppable at the moment and unless the Warriors just get stupid hot from 3, Doncic should be able to win a few games by himself. As for the Warriors it all comes down to efficiency. I think DFS and Bullock can do enough defensively to stop Klay and Wiggins that they might stand a chance at winning the entire series. We know both of these teams can produce points here. I think the entire series comes down to who is the most efficient defensively.

Captain Picks

For Showdown slates it is always crucial that you get the CPTN correct or you won't stand a chance at the top prize. Usually the top 0.1-1% of the highest scoring lineups in a SD setting feature the same CPTN with varying UTIL spot choices to round out the lineup. Given the rotations should remain fairly tight, there might only be two roster constructions you can choose tonight. The 1st is a stars and scrubs approach. That is where you take a top 3 option at CPTN, follow it up with 3 more of the top 5 priced options, and round it out with two guys that are extremely cheap in hopes that the stars get 80%+ of the usage and you only need 3-10 DK points from the cheap guys to get you to the top. The 2nd option, which will likely be my personal approach, is a balanced approach. Usually it comes with taking a mid range CPTN option, then multiple high to mid priced options at UTIL and only have to lean on one cheaper option that still has scoring viability. With how much usage the mid range gets from both of these teams, I think this is likely the most efficient approach. The following players feel like the best options to role with at that CPTN spot who might also give you a bit of leverage over the field.
Luka Doncic ($20,100 CPTN)
I would like to bet serious money that Luka is the highest scoring player in this game and the series. If you can find the value, which I think there is, then CPTN Luka is always the move. Don't overthink that
Andrew Wiggins ($11,700 CPTN)
I think this is a sneaky smart play at CPTN that should be less than 5% owned up top. He played excellent in the MEM series and great against DAL in the regular reason (AVG 30 DK points/game vs. MEM and in the reg. season vs. DAL). He should see Bullock on defense quite a bit who actually fell off in the defensive category since coming from the Knicks. He is going to get the minutes, shots and an easier matchup. You really can't go wrong with him tonight.
Stephen Curry ($16,500 CPTN)
I think my main reason for still liking Steph at CPTN here is that I think the ownership might actually be a bit lower. Most that are willing to pay up at CPTN will just go to Luka. I don't think many have the ceiling that Steph does even if he isn't playing all that well at the moment. That alone makes me still want some pieces of him at CPTN and certainly at UTIL.

Utility Picks

Along with all of the CPTN options, the following players look to be a good value tonight for a number of different reasons (pricing, matchup, ownership leverage, etc.)
Klay Thompson ($9,000)
We all know Klay can get incredibly hot and can always break the slate. Just looking at lineup construction and pricing Klay doesn't fit the cash mold at all with most going Luka/Steph/Wiggins. I think that gives you a bit of leverage over the field if you opt to fade Steph or just cram in the punt plays. He has a strong floor, high ceiling and will get the minutes and shots. What more is there to say? Klay is a really solid play tonight.
Jalen Brunson ($8,400)
Brunson didn't play all that well in the regular season series against GS, only scoring 27 DK points once. I think the price is just a bit too steep for my liking and will likely fade. I think you should do as well. The matchup against Klay just isn't the best for him.
Draymond Green ($8,200)
I think this is for sure an option if he wasn't so expensive. He just hasn't been as productive as the price would intend and I think it makes it tough to get to him. This might sound crazy but his Game 6 against MEM was an anomaly. He got up 14 shots which was a SEASON HIGH. That alone brought his price up to a point that he would need a borderline triple double to pay off this price tag. He will probably be solid leverage but I won't be going there.
Jordan Poole ($8,000)
Similar to Green, I really don't think the price is reflective of his recent play. He finished out the MEM series on a couple low points with just 20 and 24 minutes in the final two games. That might not continue into this one, but when GS gets a rotation down they don't typically go away from it. I just don't think he can get up a stat line that will come close to something Klay/Luka/Steph will be getting. He is likely another pass for me.
Dorian Finney-Smith ($6,800)
DFS is one of the most volatile players on the slate. He got up above 25 DK points four times in the PHX series, but under 15 in the other three. He actually played great in the regular season GS series, scoring 27+ DK points in 3 of the 4 matchups. I actually think this could be a great mid range play that will for sure get the minutes. Usage will always be his issue and if he gets it then he will likely be optimal. I love guys like that even if they sink me from time to time.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,400)
Dinwiddie might get some extra run in this series and that makes me extremely excited. They will need his shooting to keep up with GS and is priced in a weird spot to where his ownership will likely be nonexistent. That gives you massive leverage over the field if he gets back to the 28-30 minute mark and plenty of shots. He will likely never be the #1 option on the court so the defense shouldn't be focused solely on him. If he can just be efficient then Dinwiddie should repay value tonight. We just have to cross our fingers they continue to give him solid minutes and they don't bring it back down to the mid PHX series level (only 15-20 minutes). I think the icing on the cake is that in the two regular season games against GS, he scored 30 and 39 DK points respectively. Sign me up for Dinwiddie tonight.
Reggie Bullock ($5,400)
Bullock is the first guy that I would consider in the lower range tonight with a drop of $1,000 from Dinwiddie. He is very similar to DFS with three games above 25 DK points and four below 14 DK points in the last series. The volatility could blow up your lineup tonight but I actually like his prospects here. He should see around 30-35 minutes,get 6-10 shots up efficiently and a few peripherals to boot. Bullock gives you the ability to go Luka CPTN/Steph UTIL and not have to punt multiple spots. He might only need to get you 20 DK points and I would be okay with that. I think he is a fine play, but don't expect him to break the slate.
Kevin Looney ($4,400)
I think the rebound king will continue his play in this series and should almost be a lock tonight. He put up 4/22/5 in the closing Game 6 against MEM which was still an outlier game. Even if he can do half of that tonight then he should be optimal. Don't get cute here even if the ownership is through the roof. If Looney starts then play him. If he doesn't start then that might be worth fading. I still think he gets 20 minutes minimum here.
Dwight Powell ($3,400)
Powell finally started to get more minutes at the end of the PHX series and was a big part of the regular season series against GS. I think that should continue tonight which makes me like him over Kleber tonight. The price is quite low and the minutes should be somewhere in the 18-24 range. He doesn't need to do much but he has the height over GS and should fall into plenty of REBs and a few buckets. You won't get much more out of anyone this cheap.
Davis Bertans ($2,400)
I don't like Bertans at all tonight but it is worth noting if GS gets hot shooting they might go to a Luka/Brunson/Bullock/DFS/Bertans lineup and just pray they hit some 3s. I doubt that happens but Bertans should still get in the 5-10 minute range. At this price point some of these guys will be DNP-CDs.
Damion Lee ($1,000)
This might turn into a chalkier play but even if it does I really like him tonight. He lets you get whatever you want, including Luka CPTN and plenty of the high end guys like Steph, Brunson or Klay. He should see 10-15 minutes and even if they aren't efficient it might not matter. He could get you 5 DK points and that might be all you need. What's wild is he actually played 13-20 minutes and scored double digit DK points in all 3 of the regular season games he was available for against DAL. I love him tonight and I think you should too. Finger's crossed his ownership stays low.
Frank Ntilikina ($1,000)
Very similar situation to Lee. He got a 8-12 minutes/game towards the end of the PHX series and actually got 18 minutes in his last game against GS this season. I really just don't like his usage compared to Lee, but if Lee ends up getting 4-5x the ownership of Frank then I think it worth considering the pivot.
Fades (for me):
Maxi Kleber, Otto Porter, Jonathan Kuminga
Thanks for reading and best of luck
Heating Up DFS