The NBA season is finally here! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Only two nights ago, Russ dropped 66 DK points on the exact team he is playing tonight, the Kings. While he has been a bit volatile lately, the highs are still in the "top scorer on the slate" range and that is exactly what I want on a small slate like tonight. The Kings have had the 3rd worst PG DvP over the last two weeks and he has scored 60+ DK points against SAC in 3 of the last 4 meetings. I get the last meeting was a 3OT thriller, but I think the fact that they lost will have Russ fired up and ready to get revenge tonight. With a lot of the other top PG options in much tougher spots, I think this is a great spot to target Russ who can easily outscore them with his crazy peripheral numbers. Not to mention the Lakers have the highest implied team total on the slate, so getting a piece of that will be crucial.
High: Fred VanVleet ($8,700)
Mid: Tyus Jones ($5,200)
Low: Anfernee Simons ($4,000)
SG: Devin Booker ($8,600)
SG is quite thin tonight, so why not just spend up on a big name? Booker is in a great spot to get a bump in usage with Paul having to deal with Steph most of the game. Booker has already been scoring ~40 DK points over the last 3 games and I think a matchup against GSW is exactly what he needs to take the next step towards a ceiling game. He's had 30%+ usage in each of the last 4 games and 35+ minutes in 2 of the last 3. If we can get both of those things tonight, then I think there is a very high floor and ceiling to Booker's game which I want to be apart of.
UPDATE: No Dame, Little or Powell, so fire up CJ McCollum ($7,900) in Cash and GPPs
High: Tyrese Haliburton ($6,900)
Mid: Desmond Bane ($6,000)
Low: Svi Mykhailiuk ($3,800)
SF: DeAndre' Bembry ($4,300)
Talk about someone who hasn't gotten much attention despite back to back 30+ DK point games. Bembry without Joe Harris has low key been amazing, getting 26 and 35 minutes in the last two games while shooting red hot 80.5% from the field and grabbing 9 rebounds in both. If he can just get an extra board and even shoot around 50% from the field then 30 DK points is easily attainable once again. There is nothing that would make me think his minutes come back down and he is getting solid usage around 13% right now which is more than you can say about most sub $5,000 options. I think the price is just still too cheap, so rock and roll with Bembry while he is hot!
High: Lebron James ($10,400)
Mid: Scottie Barnes ($7,000)
Low: Tony Snell ($3,100)
PF: Jerami Grant ($7,300)
Grant is riding hot right now and his price isn't really reflective of that. He has 38+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games and has averaged 26% usage over that time frame as well. He is locked in to around 30-35 minutes right now and against POR where they are going to need to score to keep up, I really like his prospects. Portland has had the 10th worst PF DvP over the last two weeks and with Robert Covington seeing decreased minutes, I think this is the perfect spot for him to be aggressive against the lesser defensive Nassir Little more often. This is a great cash and GPP given his fairly high floor and solid usage. The only fear for cash is the amount of studs on the slate could turn this into a "stars and scrubs" ownership game which Grant doesn't really fit. Either way, for GPPs I really like Grant to continue his strong play tonight.
High: Julius Randle ($9,400)
Mid: Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,700)
Low: Chimezie Metu ($4,100)
C: Jusuf Nurkic ($6,400)
With how streaky Nurkic can be, you want to catch him on a high and he is certainly on a heater. 40+ DK points in 2 of the last 3 games and I would expect to see Norman Powell miss this game tonight. That means Little slides in more at the 3, Covington and Nance have to play more of the 4 and Nurk is locked in for solid C minutes which has been his true issue this season. When he gets over 26 minutes, he usually smashes his price tag, but there will be games he gets fazed out and only plays 20 minutes. That hasn't been the case in any of the last 3 games and he has had a 26% usage rate in those games as well (close to 10% higher than his season average). If he can keep up that usage and get solid minutes there is no doubt in my mind that he can have a ceiling game against DET who has had issues of their own at the C spot lately without Kelly Olynyk and Stewart getting into foul trouble often.