The NBA season is finally here! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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The price on LeVert is something we haven't seen yet this season, with it dropping well below the $6,000 range. He is seeing his minutes go back up to normal (~30 minutes) and his usage is following right behind it. He only needs 26.5 DK points for 5x value and he has done that in each of the last two games. I think with an easier matchup against Minnesota that is top 5 in pace and without Patrick Beverley, he can finally have a ceiling game which can be extremely high. Ownership likely won't be all over him yet either, so you he can be used as a good leverage piece off of some of the chalkier plays in this price range (Oubre, Dort, etc.) or paired with them to increase your ceiling. I just feel like his price won't be this cheap for too long if his usage stays in the mid 20% range.
High: Dejounte Murray ($9,600)
Mid: Kevin Porter ($6,800)
Low: Armani Brooks ($3,800)
SG: Luke Dort ($5,400)
He constantly drops 30+ DK points night in and night out and they refuse to price him accordingly. I will continue to roll him out until he lets me down. Dort is getting well into the 30 minutes range and 20-25% usage to go with it. He has 13+ shots in 7 straight games and is going up against HOU who has had the 6th worst SG/SF DvP in the league over the last two weeks. I just think there is such a safe floor for Dort with the ceiling being close to 7-8x value if his shot is falling.
High: LaMelo Ball ($10,400)
Mid: Darius Garland ($7,700)
Low: Chris Duarte ($3,900)
SF: Danny Green ($3,600)
This might be a weird one, but Green is just way too cheap. 24 and 27 DK points in the last two games with the minutes cap lifted is something you won't get from any one else this cheap. If he can see his minutes get closer to the 30 minutes mark then 6-8x value is not out of the realm of possibility. Orlando isn't really a tough matchup for him, but Franz Wagner has been a solid defender. Nonetheless, I think Green can easily repeat his 20 DK point floor which is already 5.5x value.
High: Paul George ($10,200)
Mid: Kelly Oubre Jr. ($5,300)
Low: Joe Ingles ($4,100)
PF: Evan Mobley ($6,700)
Evan Mobley is in a prime spot tonight against the team with the 2nd worst PF DvP over the last two weeks. Mobley is almost a lock for 30+ minutes and 10+ shots. He has been 1 rebound shy of a double double in 3 straight games and that is just about all he needs to have a ceiling game. He has pretty consistently been scoring north of 33 DK points which would give him a 5x floor for this one. I think the price is just a little too cheap for someone with such a high ceiling, so he is a great pick for both GPP and Cash formats.
High: DeMar DeRozan ($8,700)
Mid: Wendell Carter Jr. ($6,300)
Low: Robert Covington ($3,800)
C: Joel Embiid ($10,500)
I think the only thing that keeps Embiid under 55 DK points tonight is a blowout. He has scored 70 and 58 DK points in the last two games and there really isn't a better spot for C's right now (other than maybe against Charlotte) then against Orlando. Orlando statistically has had the worst C DvP in the league this season and actually the worst DvP against C's across all positions this season (150th out of 150). They allow pretty much every C to dominate them and that is much due to Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr.'s inept defensive prowess. As long as they need Embiid out there for 30+ minutes, he should be the focal point of the offense and absolutes ruin them. If the 15 point implied spread has you scared of a blowout, the other C's below will do just fine as well.