The NBA season in full swing and we have another great slate tonight! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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There are a ton of good guard options for tonight, but none have the ceiling that Harden has. Going to the Sixers has shown us that he is still the Harden of old with 58 and 80 DK points in his last two performances. The 80 DK point performance was just the other night against the team that he is playing tonight so we know there is a ceiling opportunity here. The price is honestly still tolerable given most other stud studs are priced $12,000 or higher. I just don't think the Knicks have a way to guard both him and Embiid, but they atleast have a way to slow Embiid atleast. That leaves less attention on Harden which means more scoring for him. There likely will be a guard that finishes as a higher value, but I doubt any PG fully outscores Harden so I will find value elsewhere.
High: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,000) or De'Aaron Fox ($8,100)
Mid: Malcolm Brogdon ($7,100) or Brandon Goodwin ($6,000)
Low: Gabe Vincent ($4,200) or Theo Maledon ($3,200)
SG: CJ McCollum ($9,000)
Like I said above, there are a lot of great guard options tonight so I am going to make sure I get a guy with a high ceiling. He has scored 42+ DK points in 6 straight games with multiple games over 50 DK points. This game has the highest implied total on tonight's slate so we know he is in a good spot to produce a lot of raw points. The Kings have had a bottom 10 SG DvP over the last two weeks so efficiency shouldn't be an issue. I think the deciding factor for me is the Kings are a bit better at defending Fs and bigs than guards. We could see Ingram and Jo Val concede some usage to McCollum due to this which puts him in a prime ceiling spot considering all of the factors. I just don't see a way he really kills you tonight, but if you don't take him he could very well kill your winning chances tonight if he puts up that ceiling game.
High: Devin Booker ($9,700) or Donovan Mitchell ($8,800)
Mid: Tyler Herro ($6,500) or Jalen Suggs ($5,600)
Low: Cedi Osman ($4,700) or Vit Krejci ($3,000)
SF: Cameron Johnson ($5,300)
I think this is a great spot for Cam Johnson to keep rolling with 29+ minutes in 4 straight games hitting 5x value in 3 of those 4 games. This game has a healthy implied total and Johnson seems like the type of guy that is pretty much blowout proof. Without Paul he is just rolling and has a safe floor paired with a high ceiling for the price. He should be able to get to 30 DK points here pretty easily and given that Portland is down so many bodies that efficiency shouldn't be an issue here. The icing on the cake is that Portland allows the 3rd most points to 3 PTers in the league which is Cam Johnson's bread and butter.
High: Jimmy Butler ($9,200)
Mid: Brandon Ingram ($7,900) or RJ Barrett ($7,500)
Low: Kelly Oubre ($5,400) or Matisse Thybulle ($3,900)
PF: Trey Lyles ($3,300)
If the Kings start him again then you almost have to play him. In his last game where he drew the start (2 nights ago) he put up 34.5 DK points in 31 minutes hitting 10x value. His price is still dirt cheap and their is a clear ceiling for him. Now if he doesnt start then one of the Cavs' PF's become my favorite play (Mobley or Kevin Love). At that point I wouldn't even play Lyles and hope you can find value elsewhere.
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,200)
Mid: Kevin Love ($5,500) or Jae Crowder ($5,100)
Low: Tony Snell ($3,300) or JaMychal Green ($3,400)
C: Rudy Gobert ($7,800)
This was a really tough decision because there are two C matchups tonight in absolute smash spots. I am siding with Gobert here because the implied total of his game is a bit higher. Both the Hornets and Rockets are terrible at defending Cs which had me debating Jarrett Allen or Gobert. Gobert is starting to heat up with back to back 40+ DK point games. Over the last two weeks the Rockets have allowed the most Rebounds, highest FG% and 2nd most points to C's in the league. Whether or not he is able to get up a decent points is one thing. He should be able to fall into a double double today minimum and has an outside shot at a classic 20/20 game here. Those are the types of games that take down a GPP and I don't want to miss out on that today.
High: Joel Embiid ($11,600) or Domantas Sabonis ($9,800)
Mid: Jarrett Allen ($7,400) or Evan Mobley ($7,200)
Low: Olivier Sarr ($3,000) or Goga Bitadze ($3,700)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!