The NBA season in full swing and we have another great slate tonight! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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In what should be a competitive game, Morris will likely play in the 30 minutes range and is far too cheap for his recent production in similar game scripts. He has scored 25+ DK points in 8 straight games where he hits the 30 minute mark with most being closer to the 30 DK points mark. They are going to need his defensive prowess against both Payne and Booker who will get a lot of shots up. He comes into this game with the #1 PG DRPM in the league which alone should keep him on the court. With PHX so focused on Jokic, I think Morris can have an efficient night especially considering his matchup against Payne who has a -2.78 DRPM.
High: CJ McCollum ($9,100)
Low: Tyus Jones ($4,300)
SG: Zach Lavine ($7,700)
For me the price tag on Lavine is just way too low and he might be playing without DeRozan tonight. Lavine put up 38 DK points last game which was good for 5x in his first game back, he has 5x or higher in 3 of the last 4 games and in 3 of the last 4 against NOP he has scored 49+ DK points. The minutes and usage will always be there; it all comes down to if he can reach his ceiling. The matchup against McCollum shouldn't be difficult at all so I think he can be efficient. It just seems like Lavine checks all of the boxes tonight and DeRozan sitting would be the icing on the cake.
High: Desmond Bane ($7,100)
Mid: De'Anthony Melton ($5,000)
Low: Corey Kispert ($4,100)
SF: Dillon Brooks ($5,700)
Brooks is finally back to getting his normal minutes. He broke the 30 minute mark last game without Morant and we should see him miss this one as well. He has 30+ DK points in back to back games and I think with the strength of the Pacers being at defending guards, having a bigger guard/forward in Brooks to exploit that should work wonders for them. He also is going to see a lot of Buddy Hield who has a negative DRPM this season. All in all, the price, production, matchup and usage will all be solid for Brooks here leaving me thinking he can have a ceiling game. Not to mention this game has the highest implied total on the slate.
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700)
Mid: Lauri Markkanen ($6,100) or Oshae Brissett ($5,300)
Low: Lamar Stevens ($3,400)
PF: Pat Connaughton ($4,100)
Without Middleton, Pat is going to be asked to get in the 20-25 minutes range and since his return he has been extremely effective. He has exactly 26.25 DK points in both games which if he can repeat would put him at 6x value. The only fear I have is the last two games were in much better pace situations. This is a pretty sizeable pace down spot for the Bucks, but he is still going to get a solid amount of run. On a small slate sometimes you just have to take what DK gives you and that is how I feel with Pat tonight. He should be a really safe option at a decent price with decent ownership.
High: Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,900)
Mid: Aaron Gordon ($5,000) or Rui Hachimura ($4,500)
Low: Terry Taylor ($3,500)
C: Goga Bitadze ($4,900)
Until he fails me I will continue to go right back to Goga. He has 28+ DK points in 5 of the last 6 games with a ceiling of 47 DK points and a few 35+ DK points games in there as well. There are going to need his size out there against the Grizzles who roll out quite a bit of size in their rotations. They are already thin in the front court and now they might have Isaiah Jackson more than likely out with concussion symptoms and Jalen Smith questionable with an illness. If both sit then Goga will have to play massive minutes and at this price you can't pass it up. If he starts I am going right back to him and I think you should too even with the implied spread at 12 points.
High: Nikola Jokic ($11,400) or Kristaps Porzingis ($8,700)
Mid: Steven Adams ($5,800)
Low: Khem Birch ($3,300)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!