The NBA season in full swing and we have another great slate tonight! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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over the last few games it seems that Dinwiddie has taken over the Jalen Brunson role with a boost in minutes and usage. He has had a usage rate of 26% and 24% over the last two games which is well above his average since he has joined the Mavs. He seems to be splitting time with either Brunson or Luka on the court as the #2 guy with the bigs and or Bullock/DFS being low FPPM type players. It has clearly been working for them since they have won 3 of the last 4 games with him off the bench. I think ownership will likely be lower on him tonight with a lot of attention going to Luka or Steph so you he feels like a great leverage play tonight. He has a decent ceiling to go for and I really like his prospects tonight.
High: Luka Doncic ($12,000) or Reggie Jackson ($8,200)
Mid: Jordan Poole ($5,200) or Patrick Beverley ($5,000)
Low: Gary Payton ($4,200), Killian Hayes ($3,900) or Ish Smith ($4,500)
SG: Anthony Edwards ($7,400)
I am all over him as a GPP play as of late because we know his ceiling is 50+ DK points but his price isn't reflective of that. He has seen a steady increase in production over the last two games and getting to play in a game that features two teams in the top 11 in pace could bode well for him. In his last 3 games against GS he has put up a 47 and 66 DK points with the other game busting out. This game has the highest implied total and I don't think the defensive matchup will be hard for him tonight. This just seems like a perfect spot for him to have a ceiling game again.
High: Fred VanVleet ($8,500)
Mid: Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,900) or Marcus Smart ($6,100)
Low: Raul Neto ($4,500) or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,500)
SF: Saddiq Bey ($6,600)
When Detroit gives Bey the shots he typically goes off. In his last 5 games with 10+ shots he has scored 39+ DK points in 4 of those 5 games. His last game was a 43 DK point performance with 10+ peripherals to go with his scoring. I don't think Diallo will play tonight which pretty much secures Bey for around 35-40 minutes and even at a his L15 FPPM output right at 1 FPPM then he is almost set at a 5x value. Couple that with the fact that Washington is merely middle of the pack defensively being bottom 10 in defensive efficiency this season. This is a super GPP play that has a large chance to bust, but also a large chance to have a ceiling game. I love those types of guys in my lineups even if it doesn't work out most of the time.
High: Lebron James ($11,200)
Mid: Andrew Wiggins ($6,200) or Bruce Brown ($5,400)
Low: Amir Coffey ($3,600) or Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,900)
PF: Kyle Kuzma ($9,200)
I don't know how you fade Kuzma here against a poor Detroit defense that has been bad against PF's as of late and Kuzma is on a tear right now. He has 58+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games and is priced like a guy that is an under 50 DK point performer. I really don't know what more to say. His usage has been insane since after the trade deadline and is going to get a monster amount of minutes. If he gets 20+ shots like that have allowed him to take in the last 4 games then the sky is the limit. Just to put it into perspective he broke my Boom/Bust score % tool for our premium users, returning an above 100% Boom score... All the stats say to me that you have to have him tonight so I am going to trust them.
High: Jayson Tatum ($9,800)
Mid: Jae'Sean Tate ($6,100) or Carmelo Anthony ($4,800)
Low: Robert Covington ($4,100) or Jaden McDaniels ($4,000)
C: Daniel Gafford ($3,600)
He is also a can't fade play for me tonight. His price just hasn't caught up to the production and Detroit isn't some juggernaut against bigs or anything. He has played the last 3 games with Thomas Bryant and Rui Hachimura and has still gotten up some solid performances. In his last two starting hes gotten 24 and 29 minutes while hitting 7.8 and 9x value. I could understand fading him if he was closer $4,500 but he is still sub $4,000. If he draws the start again tonight then he is a stone cold lock for me. Also I want to lock Zubac in at the UTIL but his price is getting a bit steep. He is in a smash spot as well.
High: Karl Anthony Towns ($10,100)
Mid: Ivica Zubac ($6,100) or Isaiah Stewart ($5,000)
Low: Kevin Looney ($4,500), Dwight Howard ($4,300) or Precious Achiuwa ($4,000)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!