The NBA season in full swing and we have another great slate tonight! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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This is a massive pace spot for the Thunder and SGA is already running hot. He has scored 59+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games with one over 70 DK points. His usage rate is just insane right now with Dort OFS and Giddey sidelined. The DvP stats aren't in SGA's favor here with Charlotte fairly solid at defending PGs over the last two weeks, but I really don't think that matters. The Hornets are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency and have allowed the 3rd most points to opposing teams this season (5th most over the last 5 games: 122.0 PPG allowed). I think this is a great spot to roll with SGA when there are a ton of pay up options to suppress his ownership tonight. There are only a few in decent defensive spots though so they might not be worth the price.
High: Trae Young ($10,300)
Mid: Jordan Poole ($6,500)
Low: Alex Caruso ($4,200)
SG: Fred VanVleet ($7,800)**
I get he is questionable tonight, but if he plays I expect his normal 30+ minutes and against LAL he could have a massive game. They have been bleeding points to the PG spot lately and have been awful when it comes to defensive efficiency. He has scored 41 and 53 DK points in the last two games against LAL and 39+ in 3 of the last 4. Lately this has been a smash spot for opposing PGs which is why I want him. If he is out then your best bet is to go Scottie Barnes at SF/PF since he will assume the starting PG duties and there is no way Russ is going to be able to stop him. If you need a SG then the guys below should do just fine.
High: Terry Rozier ($8,100)
Mid: Anthony Edwards ($7,600)
Low: Lindy Waters III ($3,400)
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,600)
Bojan has been running hot lately with 30+ DK points in 4 straight games. This game against MIL is going to involve a lot of scoring and Bojan's matchup isn't too difficult against Middleton who has a -0.5 DRPM this season. They are really letting him get up a ton of 3's with 8+ in 4 straight games. If that can continue here then no doubt he will have another big game. I think the big kicker for me is that Milwaukee has allowed the most opponent points to 3 PTs this season at 42.8 PPG. That is Bojan's bread and butter so the environment tonight is built for him to succeed.
High: Miles Bridges ($7,800)
Mid: Kevin Huerter ($4,700)
Low: Corey Kispert ($4,100)
PF: Danilo Gallinari ($4,500)
John Collins is expected to be out which opens up things for Gallinari to start. In games that he starts typically end in him scoring very well. Tonight they play the Blazers who are injured across the board and starting a borderline G-League team. I think Danilo will get a ton of solid looks and will more than likely be efficient with them given the defensive numbers for Portland have been dreadful over the last few weeks. Gallinari in general has scored 27+ DK points in 3 straight games which puts him at a great value tonight even if he scores 22 DK points. Gallinari checks just about every box you want tonight and is cheap enough to open up things for you to get more expensive options in your lineup.
High: Pascal Siakam ($9,100)
Mid: Evan Mobley ($7,700)
Low: Jonathan Kuminga ($4,800)
C: Onyeka Okongwu ($3,400)
I think given the role that Onyeka has grown into lately and the fact that John Collins will be out here he is set up for a huge game at a very cheap price. The Blazers are terrible so there is no reason they should have to roll out the starters for a ton of minutes. Onyeka has seen a boost in minutes to where he is getting around 20 minutes/game. He got 26 minutes last game and put up 29 DK points. If he can just get similar minutes here then there is no doubt he can put up close to 7-10x value. The price is just too cheap for what they want him to do right now. He checks just about every box tonight and lets you get multiple studs into your lineup.
High: Lebron James ($12,000)
Mid: Darius Bazley ($5,300)
Low: Kevin Looney ($4,300)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!