The NBA season in full swing and we have another great slate tonight! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Simons is pretty much going to have to carry the load tonight beside Hart without Nurkic. Prior to the ASB he was already putting on a show with 46, 47 and 50 DK points in 3 straight games. His usage rate is already in the 30% range and could be due to rise without Nurkic. This is going to be a high paced game with Portland having to score in bunches to keep up. Simons is going to likely be the main guy doing that here and has an easy individual matchup anyways against Curry. Sign me up for Simons tonight who should be fresh off of his week off break.
High: Ja Morant ($10,400)
Mid: Justise Winslow ($6,100)
Low: Rajon Rondo ($3,900) or Aaron Holiday ($3,700)
SG: Devin Booker ($8,800)
The man himself who went off in the All-Star game is back in PHX without his wingman Chris Paul. That likely means we get Point Booker and if that is he case then Booker is way too cheap for the implied usage and production. He is going to see a massive AST% boost along with his normal output. That should boost his ceiling to a point that he is almost a lock. He plays OKC which is an easy matchup regardless. He was starting to pick it up prior to the break, carried it into the ASG and is in a really great spot to get even better in this one.
High: Jaylen Brown ($8,500)
Mid: Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,400) or Cade Cunningham ($6,600)
Low: Gary Payton ($3,400) or CJ Ellerby ($4,500)
SF: Jaden McDaniels ($3,600)
McDaniels prior to the break hit 31 and 41 DK points and is in a game with two top 5 pace teams tonight. We should see a ton of scoring and if McDaniels can just get the same run he got in those games then 7-10x is a pretty easy output to hit. I think this game can go really high and we just have to hope that McDaniels can get a high enough usage to be optimal. The odds are certainly great for him here.
High: Josh Hart ($7,200)
Mid: Seth Curry ($6,000)
Low: Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,100) or Kevin Huerter ($4,600)
PF: Evan Mobley ($7,000)
This is definitely a GPP pick that could end up busting. However I think if he can do whatever Al Horford did to them prior to the break then he can have a ceiling game for sure. Horford the game before the break put up 40 DK points on the Pistons and Mobley plays essentially the same position (hybrid PF/C). Speaking of the game prior to the break, Mobley put up 50 DK points on a 26% usage rate and 30+ minutes. I think if he can just hit the 20% usage rate here then he is in for a big night. Again this is a very risky play, but I live for the risk. The guys below are much less riskier.
High: Domantas Sabonis ($9,000)
Mid: Brandon Clarke ($5,100)
Low: Greg Brown ($3,200) or James Johnson ($3,500)
C: Trendon Watford ($3,400)
The Blazers are pretty much left with just two centers and they are only Watford and newly signed Eubanks. Regardless of how he performs, he is almost a lock with minutes guarenteed here. This game is likely to be high scoring and with the way the Warriors jack up shots I think Watford can fall into atleast 10 rebounds. If he can just get a few tip ins and extra peripherals then I could easily see him get around 25-30 DK points which is good for 8x value easy. I just can't see a way that he fails here unless they decide to give Eubanks split minutes which I would be very surprised by. Watford has been playing fairly well with the minutes they have been giving him. If Watford doesn't start then maybe temper your expectations.
High: Nikola Jokic ($12,500)
Mid: DeAndre Ayton ($6,900) or Steven Adams ($5,600)
Low: Isaiah Roby ($3,700) or Kevin Looney ($4,400)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!