The NBA season has been here, but today it is now December which means it's CHRISTMAS TIME! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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To be quite frank I am a bit scared of this play tonight, but if he produces like he normally does without Beal and you fade him, it will be just like Andre Drummond last night... you will be paying the rake. No Beal here for the Wizards, so Dinwiddie will assume a much larger role. In games without Beal this season, Dinwiddie has played well above a 1 FPPM threshold and has been smashing value (in 9 games, he has averaged 23.6/5.0/8.2). The field will likely be all over him, but for good reason. He just shows up big time in this expanded role. The only reason I am a bit scared is his price tag is a bit steep compared to the usual no-Beal games and he will likely see a lot of Jrue Holiday on defense tonight. Nonetheless, he should still be able to get a high enough usage rate to hit value so riding with Dinwiddie seems like the easy move tonight.
High: James Harden ($11,000) or Dejounte Murray ($10,100)
Mid: Jalen Suggs ($5,700) or Patty Mills ($5,600)
Low: Killian Hayes ($4,100) or Jaylen Nowell ($3,800)
SG: Kyrie Irving ($9,600)
Right now it is the Harden and Irving show in Brooklyn and they get to go up against one of the best teams in the league tonight. This seems like the spotlight that both would want to shine in, but Irving can be played at a larger discount. In his last 4 games against PHX, he has scored 60+ DK points in 3 of them and is coming off of a 56 DK point game. The implied total is quite nice and both teams play at a top 10 pace this season, which makes me want to roll with Irving as my late night hammer. With SG being a bit weak tonight (barring news), it seems wise to just go up to Irving and not have to worry about it.
High: Devin Booker ($9,500)
Mid: Gary Trent ($5,800) or Will Barton ($5,800)
Low: Donte DiVincenzo ($3,700) or Corey Kispert ($3,300)
SF: Cameron Johnson ($5,400)
Johnson is getting just about as many minutes as he could ask for lately, with 36+ minutes in each of the last 4 games without Crowder. He should once again get that run with Crowder still sidelined and this matchup seems to be a lot better for him. He flopped last game against SAS, but still played a ton of minutes. The 3 games prior to that performance he averaged 32 DK points/game. With the price coming back down a bit and ownership hopefully going elsewhere after getting burned by him last time out, this feels like a good time to go right back to the well. I think the icing on the cake is the implied total and pace of this game should garner a lot of scoring which aids in boosting Johnson's ceiling.
High: Anthony Edwards ($8,500)
Mid: Andrew Wiggins ($6,900) or Franz Wagner ($5,600)
Low: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,200) or Max Strus ($4,200)**
PF: DeMar DeRozan ($9,100)
DeRozan is running hot right now, scoring 46+ DK points in 6 straight games which at this price is 5x value right away. He gets a cupcake matchup against the Magic who have had a bottom 5 SF/PF defense this season. He has been so efficient shooting the ball and ORL has allowed the 3rd highest FG% to PF's this season. DeRozan checks all the boxes tonight. All he needs is to pick up his usual peripherals and I doubt he fails you.
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000)
Mid: Kyle Kuzma ($7,400), Aaron Gordon ($5,900) or Wendell Carter Jr. ($6,200)
Low: Chuma Okeke ($4,500) or James Johnson ($3,900)
C: Jaxson Hayes ($3,700)**
This play purely comes down to whether or not he draws the start. He started last game for the first time this season and got 31 minutes with 33 DK points for close to 10x value. With Brandon Ingram out, he has been getting some extra run and I think him starting solidifies those minutes. At the moment, he might be the best value play on the slate. The only issue is that C is loaded tonight with some absolute studs. That is why I am saying that if he has to start to even remotely be viable, but the ceiling in that event is clearly 10x value. If he comes off the bench, just go up to the studs and try to rework your lineup. WARNING: This is 100% a GPP play that has a strong chance of failing, so tread lightly.
High: Nikola Jokic ($12,500)** or Bam Adebayo ($8,000)
Mid: Jakob Poeltl ($7,200) or Bismack Biyombo ($5,500)
Low: Demarcus Cousins ($3,400)
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Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!