The NBA season in full swing and we have another great slate tonight! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Smart has always been a guy to get big minutes, but without Schroder and the fact that the Celtics just traded Richardson and don't have his replacement White yet we could see Smart get almost 40 minutes tonight. That is up from the 25-28 minutes he has been getting recently and he was producing quite well in just those minutes anyways. If he can carve out even a half decent usage rate here then Smart might be able to gun for a ceiling game. I think the best thing is that Monte Morris won't be playing tonight for Denver, so Smart won't have to focus too much on the defensive end. This should be a really good matchup for Smart to thrive in and he has a lot minutes to produce in.
High: LaMelo Ball ($9,000) or D'Angelo Russell ($7,400)
Mid: Tyrese Maxey ($7,700) or Coby White ($5,400)
Low: Bones Hyland ($3,800) or Payton Pritchard ($3,600)
SG: Hamidou Diallo ($4,600)
Diallo checks literally every box tonight. He is in a high pace game, is getting big minutes and usage with no Cade or Lyles now that he has been traded. He has 28+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games with a high of 42 DK points a few nights ago and 38 DK points last night. This is a no brainer play given he should get north of 30 minutes again and 20-30% usage.
High: Zach Lavine ($9,200)
Mid: Will Barton ($6,400) or Kelly Oubre ($5,900)
Low: Lonnie Walker IV ($4,200)
SF: Devin Vassell ($4,000)
With the Spurs moving White, that opens up a spot for Vassell to grab some extra usage with the starters as well as maybe a few extra minutes. He has gotten 27+ minutes in 3 of the last 4 games and I think White giving up 30 minutes should mean that Vassell can comfortably be projected for 30+ here. He is generally around a 0.9 FPPM type of player, but the new usage bump could bring him closer to 1 FPPM and at that rate his price is just way too low. We have seen him hit 30+ DK points multiple times in the last few weeks and I think he is in a good spot to do that here.
High: Miles Bridges ($8,100)
Mid: Saddiq Bey ($6,500)
Low: Aleksej Pokusevski ($3,500) or Kenrich Williams ($4,400)
PF: DeMar DeRozan ($9,700)
DeMar is just so consistent and is in the game with the highest implied total by a mile (241 points). With Vuc having to deal with Towns and Lavine having to deal with Edwards, I think DeMar with an easy defensive matchup will be asked to do quite a bit on the offensive end. That should boost in his usage might be all he needs to push for a ceiling game. Given the amount of value, taking DeRozan and one of the guys paired above him is possible and I really like that build for tonight.
High: Tobias Harris ($8,300)
Mid: John Collins ($6,600), Jerami Grant ($6,000) or Keldon Johnson ($6,000)
Low: Oshae Brissett ($3,700), Kelly Olynyk ($4,000) or Chuma Okeke ($4,100)
C: Joel Embiid ($11,900)
The best pair with DeRozan is more than likely Embiid for me without Curry and Drummond to steal minutes (Drummond) or usage (Curry). He isn't priced up with Jokic shockingly so in my mind you are getting him at a discount tonight. He gets a cupcake matchup against the Thunder who are literally using just Favors and Bazely. Other than that they run small ball which Embiid will for sure dominate. Given his run of form over the last month and change, unless this blows out which I don't think it will he should repay his price tag easily.
High: Jarrett Allen ($7,900) or Evan Mobley ($6,700)
Mid: Hassan Whiteside ($5,600) or Clint Capela ($5,300)
Low: Zach Collins ($3,500)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!