The NBA season has been here, but today it is now December which means it's CHRISTMAS TIME! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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No LaMelo or Rozier so Ish is going to draw the start again here. He scored 37 DK points in 32 minutes last night against ATL which would be good for 10x value. This is a clear misprice and I don't want to be caught hanging when he does this again and I don't have him. You don't need to look at any advanced stats for this one. Just take your free square with Ish and move on!
High: Malcolm Brogdon ($8,700)
Mid: Kyle Lowry ($7,500) or Reggie Jackson ($6,200)
Low: Cam Payne ($4,100)
SG: Darius Garland ($7,900)
This one is more of a contrarian play, but Garland is actually in a really good spot here. Hopefully most of the field is off of him due to the possible Jrue defensive matchup, but MIL has had a bottom 6 DvP against both PG's and SG's over the last two weeks with them having the worst SG DvP in the league in that time frame. Garland has back to back 50+ DK point performances with 30%+ usage and 17+ shots in each. If they want to beat MIL, it will have to come through him and I think he can certainly do that. He might be a boom or bust prospect, but I am going to side with him having a ceiling game here again and keeping his hot streak going.
High: Anthony Edwards ($8,100)
Mid: Derrick White ($6,500)
Low: Seth Curry ($5,300) or Duncan Robinson ($4,300)
SF: Cody Martin ($3,900)
Similar to Ish at PG, Martin is in a prime spot here with all of Ball, Rozier, Plumlee and McDaniels out due to COVID protocols. He played 32 minutes last game and amassed 37 DK points. I think against Philly it might be a bit tougher for him to put up those numbers, but at such a cheap price and the minutes locked in above 30, I think he would have to really flounder this game to even just hit 5x value. He is blowout prone and even if it stays close he was apart of the finishing rotation last night. Disregard the high ownership and just take the value Draftkings has given us.
Mid: Kelly Oubre ($5,800) or Franz Wagner ($6,000)
Low: Luke Dort ($5,400) or Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,000)
PF: Jerami Grant ($7,600)
OKC might be the worst team I have seen in the last couple of years and Grant gets to take his shot against them tonight. They have a bottom 10 PF DvP over the last two weeks and they just let JJJ and Aldama put up 40+ DK points each on them the other night in the massive blowout. Grant is pretty much locked in for north of 30 minutes barring a blowout and has been seeing a ton of shots lately. He has scored 45+ DK points in 2 of the last 3 games with the only one where he didn't being against POR who has Covington. Grant should dominate this matchup and be part of the reason it does blowout. The icing on the cake would be if the game stays close and he gets 35+ minutes. I also think given all of the value tonight, you can get him at low ownership due to the field leaning towards a stars and scrubs build over balanced.
High: Domantas Sabonis ($10,000)
Mid: Miles Bridges ($7,700) or Evan Mobley ($6,600)
Low: Cameron Johnson ($4,400) or Marcus Morris ($4,900)
C: Joel Embiid ($11,000)
Charlotte is absolutely dreadful against bigs and Embiid is one of the best bigs in the game. He has scored 55+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games and neither of the last two games have gone over a 190 scoring game total. Charlotte runs at the 2nd fastest pace in the league and this one should easily go over 215. If that is the case, I could see Embiid having a ceiling game here and pushing 70+ DK points as long as it stays close. Given that Charlotte managed to win last night against ATL despite missing so many guys, I think they can do that again here. Look for Embiid to smash this spot!
High: Jarrett Allen ($8,400)
Mid: Jakob Poeltl ($6,000)
Low: Ivica Zubac ($5,100)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!