The NBA season has been here a while, but today kicks off the first day of December which means it's CHRISTMAS TIME! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Morris is in line for just about all of the PG minutes today with Bones and Rivers both out tonight due to COVID. He was already playing solid minutes and producing around 5x value already. Now without those two guys, I could see 35+ minutes and maybe a bit higher usage as well. He will have Jokic to take some of the burden off of his as well and should certainly give him solid assist numbers. To cap it all off, his matchup against ORL should be fairly easy matchup given they have had the worst PG DvP in the league over the last two weeks. Morris checks all the boxes tonight, so don't be afraid to roll him out.
UPDATE: With Giddey out, I really like Shai Gilgeous Alexander ($8,400) to get some increase in usage and peripheral numbers. Not my favorite, but very interesting
High: Luka Doncic ($11,600)
Mid: Jrue Holiday ($6,900)
Low: Facundo Campazzo ($3,900)
SG: Terry Rozier ($7,200)
I rarely go with Rozier because he always screws me, but given the price and recent production paired with the matchup I can see him killing this spot. He has 40+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games, will get the easier matchup with LaMelo being guarded by Jrue, and is underpriced. Just like Morris, he checks all the boxes tonight and in a very high paced matchup, I think there should be a ton of scoring and as long as it stays close most of that scoring will go to starters.
UPDATE: With Giddey out, Luke Dort ($5,600) is in a tasty spot to get some extra shots and ball handling possibly.
High: D'Angelo Russell ($8,400)
Mid: Kelly Oubre Jr. ($5,400)
Low: Terence Davis ($3,700)
SF: Jae'Sean Tate ($5,400)
Tate is playing solid basketball right now with 28 and 36 DK points in the last two with the 36 game being against the same team he is playing tonight (OKC). Houston runs at the fastest pace in the league, which means all of their players will have plenty of scoring opportunities. I just really like the minutes he has been getting lately and I think if that can hold with his around 20% usage rate then he can easily get back to 30+ DK points again tonight.
UPDATE: No Paul George so I love Terence Mann ($4,600) at SF as well as Reggie Jackson ($6,000) and Marcus Morris ($4,400) at other positions
High: Paul George ($10,200)
Mid: Kyle Kuzma ($6,200)
Low: Danny Green ($3,400)
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,100)
This is more a leverage play because the price compared to the recent production is truly gross. However, Giannis should absolutely dominate this matchup against the worst team in the league against bigs. Night in and night out, Charlotte gives up 50+ DK point performances against bigs and Giannis is arguably the best player on the planet. I would be more confident in this play if he had been scoring 60+ DK points in the last few games, but he hasn't gone over 60 in 5 games now. It just feels like this is the spot he gets back on track and hopefully you can get him at lower ownership due to the recent run he has been on.
High: Domantas Sabonis ($9,400)
Mid: Franz Wagner ($5,500)
Low: Chimezie Metu ($3,800)
C: Christian Wood ($8,900)
There are a ton of spend up C options, but it really feels like Wood could match their production and is on a roll right now. He has scored 60+ DK points in back to back games and has an easy matchup against OKC which is who he dropped one of those 60+ DK point performances against. He has been getting a ton of shots lately, with 14+ in 3 straight games. The Thunder have literally no one to guard him, so Houston is going to do the same thing they did last game: just feed him the ball and letting him dominate. Wood is worth just about every penny tonight!
UPDATE: No Bam for a while, so if Dewayne Dedmon ($3,100) plays he is in a great spot
High: Nikola Jokic ($11,800) or Jonas Valanciunas ($9,200)
Mid: Richaun Holmes ($5,800)
Low: Daniel Gafford ($4,800)
Thanks for reading, best of luck and have a fantastic holiday season!