The NBA season has been here, but today it is now December which means it's CHRISTMAS TIME! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Jrue will likely be without both Middleton and Giannis tonight, so I expect a massive spike in usage and possibly minutes. He dropped 40 DK points last game with Middleton missing a good part of the game and we have seen in the past Jrue go for 50-60 DK points when just Giannis is off the court. I think the price is just way too cheap for the implied role tonight. To cap it all off, Indiana has had the 8th worst PG DvP over the last two weeks, so efficiency shouldn't be an issue. He might be a bit chalky, but I am just going to take what the slate gives me here.
High: Trae Young ($10,700) or Dejounte Murray ($10,300)
Mid: Darius Garland ($7,900)
Low: Davion Mitchell ($3,600)
SG: Jalen Brunson ($6,800)
Another game without Doncic means Brunson SHOULD get a boost to minutes and usage. Last game they were beating Charlotte by nearly 30-40 points the whole game which was the reason for the lower minutes. I think against LAL that won't be the case. Brunson in his starts for Doncic this year have resulted in multiple 40+ DK point performances which is still great production at this price. Hopefully some of the field is off of him due to the poor game last time out and the price jump, leaving him lower owned. Either way, he checks a lot of boxes tonight and we know he will see plenty of ball handling. I think the icing on the cake is that the Lakers over the last two weeks have had the 10th worst PG DvP in the league. Lock and load on Brunson tonight!
High: Brandon Ingram ($9,200)
Mid: Derrick White ($7,200), Caris LeVert ($6,500), or Monte Morris ($5,800)
Low: Grayson Allen ($4,000) or Rodney Hood ($3,300)
SF: Franz Wagner ($6,300)
Talk about consistency... Wagner has scored 30+ DK points in each of the last 8 games and is playing in the game with the 3rd highest implied total on the slate. Given the sheer number of quality forwards the Hawks have, I would expect Wagner to get a healthy dose of minutes and usage while continuing his streak of 10+ shots (5 straight games). He is just such a safe pick that I don't really see how he fails you. He will for sure come in under owned based on the number of guys out tonight, so on a night that has a ton of volatility, take the guy you know will get you what you need. It might not be the "sexy" pick, but it could end up just being the right pick.
Mid: Norman Powell ($6,500), Dillon Brooks ($6,400), or Terence Mann ($5,300)
Low: Kenrich Williams ($3,500) or Aleksej Pokusevski ($3,100)
PF: Domantas Sabonis ($9,500)
Sabonis has 50+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games, gets a matchup against the Bucks without Giannis and to top it all off they have also had the worst PF DvP over the last 2 weeks in the league. Yeah Sabonis is in an amazing spot. He is a great run back option to the Bucks chalk and can still provide a high ceiling for you with just as safe of a floor. This is a homerun pick that I know will hit. If you are lucky you might be able to get him at low ownership as well!
High: Lebron James ($11,100) or Kristaps Porzingis ($8,700)
Mid: Josh Hart ($6,300) or Evan Mobley ($6,900)
Low: Marcus Morris ($5,400), Darius Bazley ($4,600), or Oshae Brissett ($3,500)
C: Andre Drummond ($4,700)
This is more of a precautionary favorite because if Embiid plays then don't play Drummond. However, if he sits Drummond is a stone cold lock. He has 40+ DK point upside without him and doesn't have too hard of a matchup against Dedmon instead of Bam. The Heat are much worse defensively without both Butler and Bam, so he should be able to take advantage of them down low. It is just such an easy pick that provides salary relief and upside. Beware though... he will be massive chalk in the event that Embiid is out. If Embiid does end up playing, just flex to the guys below as my favorite C options.
High: Nikola Jokic ($12,200) or Jonas Valanciunas ($8,700)
Mid: Jakob Poeltl ($7,000) or Bobby Portis ($7,100)
Low: Larry Nance ($4,600), Maxi Kleber ($3,800) or Robert Covington ($3,800)
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Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!