The NBA season has been here, but today it is now December which means it's CHRISTMAS TIME! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
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We are starting this one off with a bang! Trae Young likes to show up for big games and this might be one of the bigger games of the season for them so far. It has the 3rd highest implied total on the slate and Trae should be a big part of that. He is running hot right now, scoring 55+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games. The Nets aren't really that good against PG's, boasting the 10th worst PG DvP in the league over the last two weeks. If the Hawks want to keep up with Brooklyn tonight, they are going to need Trae to shoot the ball and be efficient as well. He has 22+ shots in 4 of the last 5 games and a solid FG% in that time frame to go with it. I think this is the perfect spot to go with Young and you should get him at lower ownership as well.
High: DeAaron Fox ($7,900) or Chris Paul ($8,300)
Mid: Caris LeVert ($5,800)
Low: Armani Brooks ($4,000)
SG: Brandon Ingram ($8,700)
Ingram is one of those guys you really need him in a good spot for him to hit and he sure has that tonight. He plays Detroit who has the worst SG DvP in the league over the last two weeks. Ingram is a game removed from back to back 55+ DK point games, so we know he is running hot right now. He has gotten 38, 38 and 42 minutes in his last three games, so he is going to get plenty of playing time. I think the only thing he needs is high usage to check every box which he has been getting outside of last game. It went from around 30% to 18% for some odd reason. Now that he is back in a plus matchup, I expect him to get back closer to that 30% usage rate and go for a ceiling game.
High: Kelly Oubre Jr. ($7,800)
Mid: Luke Dort ($5,500)
Low: Chris Duarte ($4,400) or Terence Davis ($4,000)
SF: Cameron Johnson ($4,600)
Without Booker in the lineup, Johnson has been getting really solid minutes logging 29, 27, 33. and 29 in those games. He has scored between 22 and 33 DK points in those games, so there is a safe floor and decent ceiling given his current price. Nothing indicates that those minutes should change here, so it should continue. I think the only thing that scares me a bit is the matchup against Boston isn't great for SF/PF type players. They have top 10 DvP's against both of those positions. I think volume should get the job done in his new role.
High: Luka Doncic ($11,000)
Mid: Cody Martin ($5,700) or Eric Gordon ($5,500)
Low: Garrison Mathews ($4,400)
PF: Lebron James ($9,800)
I will start off by saying that I wouldn't be surprised if Lebron sits tonight just because they are playing the Thunder. Why I think that he won't is because the Thunder are actually 2-0 against the Lakers this year, so I think they throw everything out there tonight and beat them down. Lebron has been playing a lot of PF lately with Davis at the C spot and the Thunder have had the worst PF DvP in the league over the last two weeks. Lebron is fresh off of a 63 DK point ceiling game and the matchup tonight is even easier. I think he can go really high here in this cupcake matchup.
High: Kevin Durant ($10,800)
Mid: John Collins ($7,200) or Harrison Barnes ($5,300)
Low: Herbert Jones ($4,000) or Chris Boucher ($4,000)
C: Whoever starts for the Kings at C
Without Richaun Holmes today, the Kings will likely have to start one of Alex Len ($3,100), Tristan Thompson ($3,500), or Damian Jones ($3,000) at C tonight. Given that Charlotte is atrocious against bigs and in fact has the worst C DvP across all positions in the league over the last two weeks, they will likely return incredible value. My best guess would be that Alex Len, but I think both him and Thompson will go well over 5x value if not closer to 10x value. That is seriously how bad Charlotte is against bigs. I don't even really care that Harrison Barnes has returned. These guys will do enough in their 20 minutes they play to put up a solid stat line.
High: Jonas Valanciunas ($8,000)
Mid: Evan Mobley ($6,800) or Isaiah Stewart ($5,400)
Low: Nerlens Noel ($3,900)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!