Kyle Young - Heating Up DFS

NBA Warriors vs. Mavericks Showdown Preview (Game 2)

The NBA Playoffs have finally hit the Conference Finals so that means it is Showdown Time! This is one of my favorite periods given the game theory nature of Showdown and want to do everything I can to get you guys the information you need to separate yourself from the pack and be unique while also having a shot at 1st place. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
1. Price
2. Opponent DvP
3. Recent Minutes/Rotation Time
4. Usage Rate
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Also be sure to subscribe to our YouTube for our video breakdowns! Click the links below to join/follow!
For player projections throughout the rest of the playoffs, be sure to check out our FREE Projection Sheet! Just click the Premium button below.

Series Overview

The Warriors really put the Mavs in their place in Game 1 with an absolute blowout. I still think that the Mavs get a game or two in this series, but things are looking bleak for them to make the Finals. Luka disappointed massively and there was clearly something going on in Game 1 with his shoulder. I think a lot hinges on whether or not Luka is fully healthy. If he is still banged up and won't be 100% the rest of the series this could be over quick. However if he is able to get over this and continue to carry this team then I think the Mavs can turn some heads. I think this becomes a pivotal game in the series. If the Mavs get blown out again this series might not make it back to GS with the Warriors sweeping. Only time will tell.

Captain Picks

For Showdown slates it is always crucial that you get the CPTN correct or you won't stand a chance at the top prize. Usually the top 0.1-1% of the highest scoring lineups in a SD setting feature the same CPTN with varying UTIL spot choices to round out the lineup. Given the rotations should remain fairly tight, there might only be two roster constructions you can choose tonight. The 1st is a stars and scrubs approach. That is where you take a top 3 option at CPTN, follow it up with 3 more of the top 5 priced options, and round it out with two guys that are extremely cheap in hopes that the stars get 80%+ of the usage and you only need 3-10 DK points from the cheap guys to get you to the top. The 2nd option, which will likely be my personal approach, is a balanced approach. Usually it comes with taking a mid range CPTN option, then multiple high to mid priced options at UTIL and only have to lean on one cheaper option that still has scoring viability. I think the main build for tonight will be stars and scrubs. I doubt there are too many games in this series where either Luka or Curry are out of the optimal (Luka was not optimal Game 1). A lot comes down to Luka's injury. The following guys I think have a strong chance at being optimal or give you a lot of leverage at CPTN without giving up win equity.
Luka Doncic ($20,400 CPTN) or Stephen Curry ($17,100 CPTN)
Both Luka and Curry got priced up a bit. Curry dominated and Luka underwhelmed which was quite surprising. I think Curry and Luka are almost for sure going to be top scorers in the game throughout the series, so picking one of them at CPTN makes the most sense. The only thing you really have to consider is atleast 80% of the field will likely have one of these two at CPTN. Is there an 80% chance these two finish as the optimal CPTN? That is quite possible, but if you want to get a bit of leverage, not captaining one of them could be a decent option to increase uniqueness. All in all, I am going right back to the well with Luka and expecting him to be the optimal CPTN. Steph I still could let you down if his shot isn't falling. However the peripherals are propping his floor up quite a bit right now so he should be optimal in some form regardless. Try to get both of these dudes and then get leverage in other spots.
Andrew Wiggins ($11,400 CPTN)
I can say the same thing as I did in Game 1. I think this is a sneaky smart play at CPTN that should be less than 5% owned up top. He played excellent in the MEM series and great against DAL in the regular reason (AVG 30 DK points/game vs. MEM and in the reg. season vs. DAL). He showed up in Game 1 to the tune of 34 DK points which was respectable and was even apart of the optimal lineup at UTIL. If Luka comes back to life and does his normal thing then you might have to go down at CPTN to avoid punting the last 2-3 UTIL spots. He should see Bullock on defense quite a bit who actually fell off in the defensive category since coming from the Knicks. He is going to get the minutes, shots and an easier matchup. You really can't go wrong with him tonight.
Reggie Bullock ($7,500 CPTN)
Bullock is going to play a ton that is for sure. He scored 22 DK points in 36 minutes of a blowout in Game 1. That number could honestly go up in this one and he is extremely cheap. Going with him at CPTN could get you Luka, Steph and one more pay up option before having to consider the cheaper guys. His ceiling isn't too high but he has the floor just on the minutes alone and gives you tons of options at the UTIL spot. He should come in at around 1-2% ownership at CPTN and if he starts hitting some 3s and the other studs go off then you might be getting a ton of leverage with just that move. It is risky, but I think it is certainly viable.

Utility Picks

Along with all of the CPTN options, the following players look to be a good value tonight for a number of different reasons (pricing, matchup, ownership leverage, etc.)
Klay Thompson ($9,200)
It really sucks that Klay is the most expensive guys outside of the top 2 because you could make an argument that anyone from him to DFS can and will score around the same amount of DK points so for Klay to be optimal he would have to go nuts and Steph underwhelm. That is certainly in the realm of possibilities, but getting Steph/Luka/Klay is really hard tonight without punting CPTN. I love him in GPPs for leverage if you fade Steph, but prepare for disappointment.
Jalen Brunson ($8,600)
To be honest I hate Brunson in all formats. His ceiling just isn't there and I doubt that he is optimal two games in a row unless Luka is injured. With the way the Warriors defend Game 1 was pretty much his ceiling. I don't like chasing that at all and I am more than willing to die on this hill.
Draymond Green ($8,200)
I actually prefer Green over a lot of guys tonight with how he picks up peripherals. He has serious triple double upside and the matchup to grab boards isn't a difficult one at all. If he can be more involved in the facilitation department and get some extra assists then 40+ DK points is certainly in the cards. It really all comes down to whether or not he can outpace the likes of Brunson, Poole and Wiggins which I think he certainly can.
Jordan Poole ($8,000)
I am really not a fan of Poole's production as of late. His minutes have come down and he really has to get hot shooting to rack up points which isn't my forte. However, his ownership will be lower than that of Brunson and Draymond. I can get down to that because his ceiling is in line with both of theirs. I still think it is risky with how close the ownership will likely be. Id lean Green first over both of them.
Dorian Finney-Smith ($6,600)
Dorian Finney Smith is an overpriced Bullock in my opinion. He will get a ton of minutes and maybe a slightly higher usage rate compared to Bullock but for a much higher price tag. He should be in the mid 20% ownership range which is actually decent because DFS does have a ceiling. Good luck guessing when that ceiling will come though. He has a good bit to deal with in the paint with Draymond his natural defender. I just don't think this series is set up for him to be successful and the price is still too lofty.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,800)
I liked Dinwiddie in Game 1 because I thought he would come in under owned and had a shot at getting some extra minutes. Well he didn't really get any extra minutes and got a price jump after underwhelming at 30% ownership which was way higher than I expected. He is a big pass for me here. I just think he is a poor mans Poole who I don't really like anyways. The floor is too low given his peripherals are non existent.
Kevin Looney ($4,800)
Looney got a healthy 28 minutes in Game 1 which was quite surprising with the Mavs going small. He did play really well in Game 1 so there is not reason to believe he doesn't continue to get those minutes. I think he is a great value option that might come in a bit over owned. I still think the ownership is warranted which is why I am fine going back to him here.
Otto Porter ($4,200)
I think Porter should get the "small ball" minutes tonight and in this series in general. I think the price is way too low and he is a great play BARRING massive ownership numbers. If he comes in at a decent ownership projection then I would try to get him in however you can. I honestly don't even hate him at CPTN if it lets you fit in what you want. I just really like his usage as well with this second unit.
Maxi Kleber ($4,600)
I think a bit of the issue with Kleber last game was that the blowout caused him to not get as many minutes. It seemed pretty obvious they wanted to go to a small ball lineup which would include Kleber but he wasn't getting the usage while they were trying to get back into it. If he can get back to the mid 20s minutes and see his usage come up a tad I actually think he can be a great play from a median projection standpoint and ownership. I don't think he will be too highly owned and for the price he can probably grade out as a solid value. I actually really like him here as a mid range pivot off of either Porter or Looney (I still think you need one of those guys)
Dwight Powell ($3,200)
Not a huge fan at all. The price is too steep for a guy that will get max 15 minutes and they are trying to go small. He doesn't fit that mold.
Davis Bertans ($2,400)
I have some intrigue for Bertans because they did give him the minutes I expected and he fits that small ball lineup mold. He can shoot if they get down, but Kleber can do the same thing. I just think he is a poor mans Kleber that doesn't have the ceiling and a lower floor. Leave him as a 6th man in only if you need someone this cheap.
Damion Lee ($1,600)
I would rather go to Lee here who will get the same minutes as Bertans but might actually do something with them for $800 cheaper. He is getting in the low teens for minutes and I doubt he gets just 1 shot attempt again tonight. He is the perfect filler if you really need to punt at the 6th UTIL spot and have an expensive CPTN (Luka or Curry). I would likely avoid trying to punt CPTN and at the 6th spot just to get the top 4 priced options at the other UTIL spots.
Frank Ntilikina ($1,000)
Same as last game for Frank here. Very similar situation to Lee. He got a 8-12 minutes/game towards the end of the PHX series and actually got 18 minutes in his last game against GS this season. He played 10 minutes in Game 1 and amassed just 1 DK points. That is putrid. I really just don't like his usage compared to Lee, but if Lee ends up getting 4-5x the ownership of Frank then I think it worth considering the pivot.
Fades (for me):
Jonathan Kuminga
Thanks for reading and best of luck

NBA Heat vs. Celtics Showdown Preview (Game 2)

The NBA Playoffs have finally hit the Conference Finals so that means it is Showdown Time! This is one of my favorite periods given the game theory nature of Showdown and want to do everything I can to get you guys the information you need to separate yourself from the pack and be unique while also having a shot at 1st place. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
1. Price
2. Opponent DvP
3. Recent Minutes/Rotation Time
4. Usage Rate
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Also be sure to subscribe to our YouTube for our video breakdowns! Click the links below to join/follow!
For player projections throughout the rest of the playoffs, be sure to check out our FREE Projection Sheet! Just click the Premium button below.

Series Overview

Game 1 was a tale of multiple quarters with the Celtics honestly dominating for 3 quarters (1st/2nd/4th) and the only reason the Heat won was because they took over in the 3rd, outscoring the Celtics 39-14. You can't win games losing a quarter by that much when you are without two starters. Butler absolutely carried them, amassing 73 DK points. He was the clear CPTN option to go to and was one of my favorite from Game 1. I even pivoted off of the winning lineup because it used all $50,000 of the salary which I avoid in SDs (it usually is duplicated way too much). Nonetheless, I think the Celtics can easily take Game 2 with Smart back even with Horford still out for this one. Going into Boston with a 1-1 series would be a lot more appealing for the NBA and the Celtics and I am pretty confident we see it happen tonight. It will be very interesting how the Celtics change their defensive plan to stop Butler. Will they just let him continue to dominate and stop all the other options (Bam/Strus/Vincent) or try to stop Butler and let the others beat them? Only time will tell but I am very excited for the prospects of this game tonight.

Captain Picks

For Showdown slates it is always crucial that you get the CPTN correct or you won't stand a chance at the top prize. Usually the top 0.1-1% of the highest scoring lineups in a SD setting feature the same CPTN with varying UTIL spot choices to round out the lineup. Given the rotations should remain fairly tight, there might only be two roster constructions you can choose tonight. The 1st is a stars and scrubs approach. That is where you take a top 3 option at CPTN, follow it up with 3 more of the top 5 priced options, and round it out with two guys that are extremely cheap in hopes that the stars get 80%+ of the usage and you only need 3-10 DK points from the cheap guys to get you to the top. The 2nd option, which will likely be my personal approach, is a balanced approach. Usually it comes with taking a mid range CPTN option, then multiple high to mid priced options at UTIL and only have to lean on one cheaper option that still has scoring viability. With how much usage the mid range gets from both of these teams, I think this is likely the most efficient approach.

The clear roster construction tonight will be to CPTN Tatum or Butler and then take 3 mid range guys and one punt. Just be sure to factor that in while you are creating your lineups. It is almost always advantageous to try to be unique and avoid this build if you want a solo win.The following players feel like the best options to role with at that CPTN spot who also give you a bit of leverage over the field.
Jayson Tatum ($15,900 CPTN) and Jimmy Butler ($16,500 CPTN)
I am not going to talk anyone off of this build even if it will be chalky. From an optimal standpoint they will still have a massive gap over the mid range CPTN strategies who will likely project close to 15-20 points lower as the optimal build. There are plenty of ways to get unique even with one of them at CPTN. It probably would come in the form of fading the other which could for certain work out. The prices have flipped from Game 1 with Butler now a couple hundred more than Tatum vs. Tatum being $1,200 more in Game 1. I still think I prefer Butler over Tatum if you are wondering which I like more. I think the Celtics have fewer defensive options to stop Butler whereas the Heat can properly defend Tatum if they focus on him. All in all, you can still CPTN one of these guys and even stack both at CPTN + UTIL, but be prepared to chop with 10's if not 100's of other lineups.
Marcus Smart ($10,800 CPTN)
I think this is the best CPTN you can go to and actually have a chance at being unique. He missed Game 1 with an injury and will likely come in lower owned because of that. He is still likely to see 30+ minutes with solid usage and will get plenty of peripherals to boot. Pritchard was able to play very well in Game 1 and I think Smart can replicate that. He is a big game player and as long as he is 100% healthy I think he can produce in a big way tonight.
Gabe Vincent ($6,600 CPTN)
With Lowry still out, Vincent should see the bulk of the PG minutes and is still way too cheap. He is seeing mid teens usage and around 30 minutes of action which at this price range you wont find. If going Vincent CPTN saves you from having to punt down at your 6th UTIL spot then it might be an optimal move. My only fear is you probably need him to repeat his Game 1 performance of 31 DK points to have a shot at being optimal. Regardless, he offers some leverage at CPTN where only 3-5% of the field will go that direction.

Utility Picks

Along with all of the CPTN options, the following players look to be a good value tonight for a number of different reasons (pricing, matchup, ownership leverage, etc.)
Jaylen Brown ($9,400)
To be honest Brown is also fine at CPTN. He just has the Heat's number this season, scoring 40 DK points in 3 of the 4 games against MIA this season. From an ownership perspective I think I like Brown more than Tatum. He will probably be 15-20% lower owned and to certain extent can easily outscore Tatum if the Heat just make an effort to force the other C's to beat them. There really isn't much to say. Brown will get minutes, shots, usage and plenty of scoring. If he doesn't then it is likely the Celtics get blown.
Bam Adebayo ($8,400)
Bam just hasn't played well in his career when Robert Williams starts at C. He is definitely a leverage play but I still don't trust him. The minutes will be there and so will the usage but he might just not rack up enough points to contend with the Browns/Tatums/Butlers of this game. Bam is definitely one that I want to love for the savings but I see him letting you down more often then not. I think he is optimal once or twice in this series, but good luck figuring out which that will happen in.
Tyler Herro ($6,800)
I still like Herro tonight with the minutes and usage he should get. The price is still fairly cheap given he scored 33 DK points in Game 1. The only thing I don't like about Herro is his REB% is extremely volatile. Game 1 was an example where he had a strong REB%, but if he isn't able to grab those then he could ruin your lineup tonight. Herro is basically a "flip a coin" type of player. He could be optimal or help you pay the rake. Regardless I still like him as long as ownership projections have him lower owned. If he is high owned I would pass.
Max Strus ($6,400)
The price is somewhat tolerable now and I still think the minutes are in a great spot and he won't garner much ownership at all. As long as he can just pick up the peripherals he should be solid. I think he has a strong floor in this current rotation just based on usage and minutes alone. I still think the price is a bit too steep for my liking and he is really hard to get to if you want to get Butler and Tatum, but nonetheless I think he makes for a solid GPP option. I would probably avoid in cash games.
Robert Williams ($6,200)
I still love Williams here and will probably continue to love him as long as he is under $7,000. He is a high FPPM type of guy that plays his heart out and as long as he is healthy he should be fine. He will eat up all of the ownership compared to Strus and for good reason. However, if Bam gets him into foul trouble (which I think the Heat should try to do) then Williams could bust hard. He is still coming off of injury and I think there is some cause for concern. I am just a "ride or die" Williams fan who tries to play him whenever I can. For tournaments I actually think I would prefer Strus or Herro.
Grant Williams ($5,400)
Not a huge fan here. He just isn't as productive with Robert Williams in the lineup and I would go down to Pritchard/Tucker/Vincent or up to Robert/Strus/Herro in almost every instance. Avoid across the board.
Payton Pritchard ($4,800)
Pritchard got a bit lucky having Smart out in Game 1 and gets even luckier in Game 2 with White missing due to personal reasons. He should see in the 20-25 minute range with decent usage and is always live to hit a good amount of 3's. I wish he was closer to $4,000 then $5,000 but I still think he can be optimal. I would avoid stacking him with Smart because they don't correlate. Just a roster construction tip for you with Pritchard and Smart.
PJ Tucker ($4,600)
I think with the White news coming out I would prefer Pritchard over Tucker. However ownership will 100% side that direction as well and if we see Tucker come in under 20% again then I think there is some merit to going back to him. He might not have the highest FPPM output but he will play big minutes and has broken out of his "5 DK point" floor. I think he settles in the 20 DK point ceiling range, but if you are playing the ownership game I think he gives you some solid leverage.
Dewayne Dedmon ($2,000)
I have literally the exact same excerpt for Dedmon as I did for Game 1.There isn't much to say here about Dedmon. He probably won't break 15 minutes and the usage won't be there. If you really want to get 3-4 studs though you might have to consider Dedmon. However, there is a significantly higher ceiling and floor for Daniel Theis who is $200 cheaper. I would go there 99% of the time.
Daniel Theis ($1,800)
Theis will likely come in 50% owned if not higher in any contest. He should be a lock in cash. I think he is a great play regardless and I think you have to play him if you want a top 5 priced option at CPTN. There is only 1 other play down this low that might have a shot at making Theis not optimal and that is...
Aaron Nesmith ($1,000)
Nesmith should get 10 minutes and okay usage with little ownership. He is the clear pivot off of Theis and will likely be 1/10th as owned. If that extra $800 gets you from one player to another that you like more it actually might be a smart pivot. I wouldn't expect him to get anything more than 10 DK points. He got 8.25 DK points in 11 minutes in Game 1 without Smart. Now they are without White who probably plays more SG anyways. That could mean Nesmith gets closer to 15 minutes here.
Fades (for me):
Victor Oladipo
Thanks for reading and best of luck

NBA Warriors vs. Mavericks Showdown Preview (Game 1)

The NBA Playoffs have finally hit the Conference Finals so that means it is Showdown Time! This is one of my favorite periods given the game theory nature of Showdown and want to do everything I can to get you guys the information you need to separate yourself from the pack and be unique while also having a shot at 1st place. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
1. Price
2. Opponent DvP
3. Recent Minutes/Rotation Time
4. Usage Rate
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Also be sure to subscribe to our YouTube for our video breakdowns! Click the links below to join/follow!
For player projections throughout the rest of the playoffs, be sure to check out our FREE Projection Sheet! Just click the Premium button below.

Series Overview

This should be more of an offensive affair with neither team having a defensive option to stop the other team's top player (Luka and Steph). This definitely feels like a David vs. Goliath matchup with GS having much more experience compared to Luka and the Mavs. Regardless of that fact, I think this should be a close series. Luka is unstoppable at the moment and unless the Warriors just get stupid hot from 3, Doncic should be able to win a few games by himself. As for the Warriors it all comes down to efficiency. I think DFS and Bullock can do enough defensively to stop Klay and Wiggins that they might stand a chance at winning the entire series. We know both of these teams can produce points here. I think the entire series comes down to who is the most efficient defensively.

Captain Picks

For Showdown slates it is always crucial that you get the CPTN correct or you won't stand a chance at the top prize. Usually the top 0.1-1% of the highest scoring lineups in a SD setting feature the same CPTN with varying UTIL spot choices to round out the lineup. Given the rotations should remain fairly tight, there might only be two roster constructions you can choose tonight. The 1st is a stars and scrubs approach. That is where you take a top 3 option at CPTN, follow it up with 3 more of the top 5 priced options, and round it out with two guys that are extremely cheap in hopes that the stars get 80%+ of the usage and you only need 3-10 DK points from the cheap guys to get you to the top. The 2nd option, which will likely be my personal approach, is a balanced approach. Usually it comes with taking a mid range CPTN option, then multiple high to mid priced options at UTIL and only have to lean on one cheaper option that still has scoring viability. With how much usage the mid range gets from both of these teams, I think this is likely the most efficient approach. The following players feel like the best options to role with at that CPTN spot who might also give you a bit of leverage over the field.
Luka Doncic ($20,100 CPTN)
I would like to bet serious money that Luka is the highest scoring player in this game and the series. If you can find the value, which I think there is, then CPTN Luka is always the move. Don't overthink that
Andrew Wiggins ($11,700 CPTN)
I think this is a sneaky smart play at CPTN that should be less than 5% owned up top. He played excellent in the MEM series and great against DAL in the regular reason (AVG 30 DK points/game vs. MEM and in the reg. season vs. DAL). He should see Bullock on defense quite a bit who actually fell off in the defensive category since coming from the Knicks. He is going to get the minutes, shots and an easier matchup. You really can't go wrong with him tonight.
Stephen Curry ($16,500 CPTN)
I think my main reason for still liking Steph at CPTN here is that I think the ownership might actually be a bit lower. Most that are willing to pay up at CPTN will just go to Luka. I don't think many have the ceiling that Steph does even if he isn't playing all that well at the moment. That alone makes me still want some pieces of him at CPTN and certainly at UTIL.

Utility Picks

Along with all of the CPTN options, the following players look to be a good value tonight for a number of different reasons (pricing, matchup, ownership leverage, etc.)
Klay Thompson ($9,000)
We all know Klay can get incredibly hot and can always break the slate. Just looking at lineup construction and pricing Klay doesn't fit the cash mold at all with most going Luka/Steph/Wiggins. I think that gives you a bit of leverage over the field if you opt to fade Steph or just cram in the punt plays. He has a strong floor, high ceiling and will get the minutes and shots. What more is there to say? Klay is a really solid play tonight.
Jalen Brunson ($8,400)
Brunson didn't play all that well in the regular season series against GS, only scoring 27 DK points once. I think the price is just a bit too steep for my liking and will likely fade. I think you should do as well. The matchup against Klay just isn't the best for him.
Draymond Green ($8,200)
I think this is for sure an option if he wasn't so expensive. He just hasn't been as productive as the price would intend and I think it makes it tough to get to him. This might sound crazy but his Game 6 against MEM was an anomaly. He got up 14 shots which was a SEASON HIGH. That alone brought his price up to a point that he would need a borderline triple double to pay off this price tag. He will probably be solid leverage but I won't be going there.
Jordan Poole ($8,000)
Similar to Green, I really don't think the price is reflective of his recent play. He finished out the MEM series on a couple low points with just 20 and 24 minutes in the final two games. That might not continue into this one, but when GS gets a rotation down they don't typically go away from it. I just don't think he can get up a stat line that will come close to something Klay/Luka/Steph will be getting. He is likely another pass for me.
Dorian Finney-Smith ($6,800)
DFS is one of the most volatile players on the slate. He got up above 25 DK points four times in the PHX series, but under 15 in the other three. He actually played great in the regular season GS series, scoring 27+ DK points in 3 of the 4 matchups. I actually think this could be a great mid range play that will for sure get the minutes. Usage will always be his issue and if he gets it then he will likely be optimal. I love guys like that even if they sink me from time to time.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,400)
Dinwiddie might get some extra run in this series and that makes me extremely excited. They will need his shooting to keep up with GS and is priced in a weird spot to where his ownership will likely be nonexistent. That gives you massive leverage over the field if he gets back to the 28-30 minute mark and plenty of shots. He will likely never be the #1 option on the court so the defense shouldn't be focused solely on him. If he can just be efficient then Dinwiddie should repay value tonight. We just have to cross our fingers they continue to give him solid minutes and they don't bring it back down to the mid PHX series level (only 15-20 minutes). I think the icing on the cake is that in the two regular season games against GS, he scored 30 and 39 DK points respectively. Sign me up for Dinwiddie tonight.
Reggie Bullock ($5,400)
Bullock is the first guy that I would consider in the lower range tonight with a drop of $1,000 from Dinwiddie. He is very similar to DFS with three games above 25 DK points and four below 14 DK points in the last series. The volatility could blow up your lineup tonight but I actually like his prospects here. He should see around 30-35 minutes,get 6-10 shots up efficiently and a few peripherals to boot. Bullock gives you the ability to go Luka CPTN/Steph UTIL and not have to punt multiple spots. He might only need to get you 20 DK points and I would be okay with that. I think he is a fine play, but don't expect him to break the slate.
Kevin Looney ($4,400)
I think the rebound king will continue his play in this series and should almost be a lock tonight. He put up 4/22/5 in the closing Game 6 against MEM which was still an outlier game. Even if he can do half of that tonight then he should be optimal. Don't get cute here even if the ownership is through the roof. If Looney starts then play him. If he doesn't start then that might be worth fading. I still think he gets 20 minutes minimum here.
Dwight Powell ($3,400)
Powell finally started to get more minutes at the end of the PHX series and was a big part of the regular season series against GS. I think that should continue tonight which makes me like him over Kleber tonight. The price is quite low and the minutes should be somewhere in the 18-24 range. He doesn't need to do much but he has the height over GS and should fall into plenty of REBs and a few buckets. You won't get much more out of anyone this cheap.
Davis Bertans ($2,400)
I don't like Bertans at all tonight but it is worth noting if GS gets hot shooting they might go to a Luka/Brunson/Bullock/DFS/Bertans lineup and just pray they hit some 3s. I doubt that happens but Bertans should still get in the 5-10 minute range. At this price point some of these guys will be DNP-CDs.
Damion Lee ($1,000)
This might turn into a chalkier play but even if it does I really like him tonight. He lets you get whatever you want, including Luka CPTN and plenty of the high end guys like Steph, Brunson or Klay. He should see 10-15 minutes and even if they aren't efficient it might not matter. He could get you 5 DK points and that might be all you need. What's wild is he actually played 13-20 minutes and scored double digit DK points in all 3 of the regular season games he was available for against DAL. I love him tonight and I think you should too. Finger's crossed his ownership stays low.
Frank Ntilikina ($1,000)
Very similar situation to Lee. He got a 8-12 minutes/game towards the end of the PHX series and actually got 18 minutes in his last game against GS this season. I really just don't like his usage compared to Lee, but if Lee ends up getting 4-5x the ownership of Frank then I think it worth considering the pivot.
Fades (for me):
Maxi Kleber, Otto Porter, Jonathan Kuminga
Thanks for reading and best of luck

NBA Heat vs. Celtics Showdown Preview (Game 1)

The NBA Playoffs have finally hit the Conference Finals so that means it is Showdown Time! This is one of my favorite periods given the game theory nature of Showdown and want to do everything I can to get you guys the information you need to separate yourself from the pack and be unique while also having a shot at 1st place. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
1. Price
2. Opponent DvP
3. Recent Minutes/Rotation Time
4. Usage Rate
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Also be sure to subscribe to our YouTube for our video breakdowns! Click the links below to join/follow!
For player projections throughout the rest of the playoffs, be sure to check out our FREE Projection Sheet! Just click the Premium button below.

Series Overview

This series should be quite defensive with both teams squarely in the top 5 in defensive efficiency this season. Anchored by Butler/Bam and Smart respectively, I think this series could go a number of ways in all facets of the game. I think it comes down to the final possession in multiple games which has me very excited for what is to come. Both teams are 11 games deep into this playoffs run and have had to take down a top 5 players in the league in the process (Heat: Embiid, Celtics: Durant/Giannis). The Celtics feel more battle tested of the two, overcoming a 3-2 deficit against the defending Champions. However, the Heat have had a couple extra days of rest leading into this series. It has given them plenty of time to get healthy. If they get out to an early series lead, I really think this could be detrimental to the Celtics' chances. On the other hand, if the Celtics shoot like they did in that Game 7 against the Bucks then there is an avenue for them to sweep the Heat here. I don't envision that will happen given the Bucks were one of the worst 3 PT defenses in the league this entire season anyways, but the Heat weren't much better. They both have a lock down the paint mentality that could lean in the Celtics favor here. Just looking at the regular season, Boston won the season series 2-1 with only 1 game going over a 204 total score. This series will likely be the polar opposite of the GS vs. DAL series with strong defensive play and the studs separating themselves to decide who heads to the NBA Finals.

Captain Picks

For Showdown slates it is always crucial that you get the CPTN correct or you won't stand a chance at the top prize. Usually the top 0.1-1% of the highest scoring lineups in a SD setting feature the same CPTN with varying UTIL spot choices to round out the lineup. Given the rotations should remain fairly tight, there might only be two roster constructions you can choose tonight. The 1st is a stars and scrubs approach. That is where you take a top 3 option at CPTN, follow it up with 3 more of the top 5 priced options, and round it out with two guys that are extremely cheap in hopes that the stars get 80%+ of the usage and you only need 3-10 DK points from the cheap guys to get you to the top. The 2nd option, which will likely be my personal approach, is a balanced approach. Usually it comes with taking a mid range CPTN option, then multiple high to mid priced options at UTIL and only have to lean on one cheaper option that still has scoring viability. With how much usage the mid range gets from both of these teams, I think this is likely the most efficient approach. The following players feel like the best options to role with at that CPTN spot who also give you a bit of leverage over the field.
Jaylen Brown ($13,800 CPTN)
Brown was extremely consistent in the MIL series in the games he didn't get into foul trouble, scoring 45+ DK points in 3 of the 5 games he fit those parameters. During the regular season series, Brown actually outscored Tatum in 2 of the 3 and you can get him at a significant discount tonight. I actually think they overpriced Tatum who will be the major focus for Miami on defense which could open up things for Brown to thrive. I think he gets a much easier matchup against Strus compared to Butler guarding Tatum. For those reasons, I think Brown returns a much higher value and his ownership at CPTN should give you a major advantage over the field. He might come in underowned in general, not just at CPTN.
Bam Adebayo ($12,600 CPTN)
Bam did not have a good series against PHI but that was more due to his matchup against Embiid. It was never going to be an easy task for him and I think it gets much easier in this one. He will get a banged up Robert Williams and Daniel Theis from the C spot which should be exploitable. I think they go to him early to test out Robert on the defensive end and see if he can handle things. Just from a pricing perspective, Bam is quite cheap from his poor finish to the PHI series. I can't imagine he continues that run of form here and should return to his 35+ DK point floor. He is a guy that can score you DK points in a number of ways and has a lot of things going for him tonight (price, matchup, usage). I think he can have a really solid game and series, so roll Bam out with confidence.
Marcus Smart ($11,400 CPTN)
Smart is just one of those guys that is going to give it his all every single night. With him being this close to getting to the Finals, I think we see his best almost every night. He finished out the MIL series on a high, scoring 39 and 40 DK points in the two final games after his Game 5 blunder. He scored well in the regular season series against MIA as well with 32 and 34 DK points in the final two games. Similar to Bam, Smart can do it all from scoring to picking up peripherals which has me in love with him for this series and game. The matchup is also heavily in his favor against Vincent who might cave under the pressure. Give me all the Smart I can handle tonight.

Utility Picks

Along with all of the CPTN options, the following players look to be a good value tonight for a number of different reasons (pricing, matchup, ownership leverage, etc.)
Jayson Tatum ($12,000)
As crazy as it sounds I really don't like Tatum here. The matchup against Butler is not going to be easy. He will likely be in the 60-80% ownership range and in the regular season series against MIA he only averaged 38 DK points/game across the 3 games. His price is also way higher than any other player which makes it to where you almost have to punt down to a $4,000 or less option. I really don't like having to do that so I will more that likely be way under the field on Tatum tonight.
Jimmy Butler ($10,800)
I think he will hold 80%+ ownership tonight, but it is likely you need it. He is locked in right now and should be a top 3 DK scorer in the game tonight.
Max Strus ($7,000)
Honestly the price on Strus is gross, but that alone should give you a ton of leverage in the ownership department. He scored 43 and 36 DK points in the final two games of the PHI series along with 35 and 37 DK points in the final two games of the regular season series against BOS. He clearly likes this matchup and I am more than willing to say he is a good play tonight even if not many others are willing to plant that flag with me.
PJ Tucker ($5,400)
Similar to Smart, Tucker is a big game player and will give it his all for every minute he is out on the court. He should play north of 30 minutes and even at a low usage I think he can get you what you want. There might be a few cheaper options below him that look better on paper, but Tucker is always live for a big score even if he is just as live to score under 5 DK points. I will take that volatility any day of the week at a low ownership like he will garner tonight.
Derrick White ($5,200)
White will likely see a slight drop in minutes the Robert Williams returning, but at the end of the day he is going to get a sizeable amount of the G minutes and can't be as bad as he was in that close out game against MIL. I don't think he is in a ceiling spot here, but down at these salaries you really are starting to dip into some really questionable plays regardless. I am fine taking a shot at White who will be lower owned and has been apart of one of Boston's most efficient lineups this postseason (Smart/White/Brown/Tatum/Horford).
Grant Williams ($5,000)
I think he will be a bit over owned tonight following his Game 7 heroics. His minutes will likely dip with Robert returning and getting his normal run, but I actually like him a bit more off of the bench. He was honestly better off of the bench in the MIL series and will still get a ton of 3's up. The only qualm I have with him is the Heat will 100% pivot to defend him if he starts to get hot shooting like he did in Game 7. Just remember, in Game's 4-7 he averaged 10 DK points/game. He is always live to get almost no usage and ruin your lineup.
Robert Williams ($4,800)
Williams is one of my favorite plays tonight. He is a high FPPM player when he gets the minutes and Udoka has said Williams will get his normal run tonight. While that might only be ~25 minutes, he can still produce 30+ DK points in that time. I just love his upside and price. The only thing that scares me is the ownership will likely be in the 40-60% range which is quite high. If you can find a low ownership guy to fit in your lineup then Williams is more than fine.
Gabe Vincent ($4,200)
Still no Lowry so Vincent will likely start and get 25-30 minutes. He will be chalk and likely for a good reason. I think if you want leverage, Vincent seems like the easiest guy to pivot off of to do that. However, he is likely to give you a really solid floor and is too cheap for the role he will play tonight. If you want to pivot off of Vincent, Strus, Oladipo and Herro seem like the best moves to go to.
Dewayne Dedmon ($2,000)
There isn't much to say here about Dedmon. He probably won't break 15 minutes and the usage won't be there. If you really want to get 3-4 studs though you might have to consider Dedmon. I think he is a better bet over Theis who might not even play. This is a tough guy to try to tout because I don't think there is any bit of a ceiling here. However, down in this price range he is about the only one guaranteed to get minutes.
Duncan Robinson ($1,000)
He barely got run in the PHI series but being that it is Game 1 that could change. He got run in the regular season series against BOS so you might see him make some appearances in this one as a shooting spark off the bench. My only issue with Robinson is he has atleast 5 guys ahead of him in the pecking order, so a DNP-CD is the likely outcome.
Fades (for me):
Al Horford, Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo, Payton Pritchard, Daniel Theis
Thanks for reading and best of luck

NBA March 31st Starting Five

The NBA season in full swing and we have another great slate tonight! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
1. Price
2. Opponent DvP
3. Recent Minutes/Rotation Time
4. Usage Rate
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Also be sure to subscribe to our YouTube for our video breakdowns! Click the links below to join/follow!
For Premium Draftkings Cash/GPP lineups, contest selection, or PrizePick/SuperDraft lineups, be sure to sign-up for NBA Premium! For just $25/month or $10/week, it will provide you with our NBA Clipboard which should be everything you need to dominate this NBA Season! Sign-up today using promo code NBA2021 for 50% off your first month!

PG: Caris LeVert ($5,800)

Smaller slate tonight so there is a limited number of good plays in general. Given LeVert has not gotten enough of a price bump he seems like an absolute lock. He has scored 28+ DK points in 3 straight games and is coming off of a 46 DK point outing. The stars are aligning for LeVert with his minutes, usage and matchup all in a prime spot tonight and he is way too cheap to pass up. Take what the slate is giving us in LeVert and don't look back.
High: Darius Garland ($10,100) or Jrue Holiday ($8,300)
Mid: Mike Conley ($6,000)
Low: Killian Hayes ($4,300)

SG: Malik Monk ($5,500)

Monk has 32+ DK points in 3 straight games and had 43 DK points without Lebron and Davis last game. His price only moved up a little bit and he is in the same situation tonight. Even better, Russ will be defended by Conley which is still a really tough matchup so we could see Monk go even higher than that 43 DK point mark here. They are going to need to score in bunches if they want a shot at beating Utah and that is exactly what they are going to get from Monk.
High: Paul George ($9,400) or Donovan Mitchell ($8,800)
Mid: Jordan Clarkson ($6,200)
Low: Lamar Stevens ($3,500)

SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)

The SF positions tonight leaves a lot to be desired. That really just makes me want to either pay all the way up for Giannis or go all the way down and punt the position. The BKN/MIL game has the highest implied total by nearly 20 whole points so you are going to want to get pieces from it. Why not get the best one when there is plenty of value in other positions? He is coming off of a 75 DK point game and probably has the highest ceiling on the entire slate. He is by far my favorite spend up option tonight and it isn't really close.
High: Kevin Durant ($11,400)
Mid: Seth Curry ($5,000) or De'Andre Hunter ($4,900)
Low: Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,100) or Patrick Williams ($3,200)

PF: Stanley Johnson ($3,800)

If Bojan Bogdanovic is out then my favorite PF play is Juan Hernangomez. However if Bojan is in then Stanley slots right in nicely. He has scored 23+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games he has played and scored 31 DK points without Lebron and Davis last game. He is going to have to play a good amount regardless and is just too cheap for the implied ceiling. The matchup is a bit tough but he probably has one of the easier individual matchups of the starters (even if it is still bad). All in all, Stanley might be over owned tonight but for a good reason. He still grades out as a great play.
High: DeMar DeRozan ($8,400)
Mid: Kevin Love ($5,900)
Low: Juan Hernangomez ($3,800)** or Rudy Gay ($3,200)**

C: Andre Drummond ($6,000)

After seeing Nash give Drummond big minutes last game I think it is time I go back to him. He has 28 and 31 minutes in the last two games and put up 30+ DK points in 3 straight. His ownership is likely to be through the roof which is a bit concerning but for good reason. His ceiling is very high and the game environment is too good to pass up. I think the icing on the cake is that Drummond in the last two meetings against MIL has gotten big minutes as well. That is all I need to see to expect 30 DK points minimum from Drummond here.
High: Joel Embiid ($11,500)
Mid: Rudy Gobert ($7,700) or Isaiah Stewart ($5,000)
Low: Brook Lopez ($3,900) or Moses Brown ($3,200)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!

NBA March 29th Starting Five

The NBA season in full swing and we have another great slate tonight! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
1. Price
2. Opponent DvP
3. Recent Minutes/Rotation Time
4. Usage Rate
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Also be sure to subscribe to our YouTube for our video breakdowns! Click the links below to join/follow!
For Premium Draftkings Cash/GPP lineups, contest selection, or PrizePick/SuperDraft lineups, be sure to sign-up for NBA Premium! For just $25/month or $10/week, it will provide you with our NBA Clipboard which should be everything you need to dominate this NBA Season! Sign-up today using promo code NBA2021 for 50% off your first month!

PG: Tomas Satoransky ($4,100)

If they are going to continue to give Satoransky 25+ minutes and the start then I am going to go with him. Especially on a small slate where he is a great value and has both G and F eligibility. He has scored 22 and 24 DK points in the last two games with minimal usage and only a few shots. He finally started to pick in up last game and was doing well with the peripherals. I think unless something opens up then there is a solid chance that Sato comes in as one of the better value plays on the slate. If he doesn't start then completely fade. It likely means they saw enough of Sato and will bring Neto back into the lineup and in that event I would pivot to him at just $3,600
High: Luka Doncic ($11,400) or Russell Westbrook ($8,800)
Mid: Jalen Brunson ($5,900)
Low: Raul Neto ($3,600)** or Killian Hayes ($3,900)

SG: Malik Monk ($5,200)

With no Lebron or Davis tonight Monk is going to be asked to take up a good amount of usage here. Monk has scored 32+ DK points in each of the last two games and those were with Lebron. At this price even with Lebron I think he is a good value but without there is a solid chance he hits his ceiling. The shots, usage and minutes are all there and he has been extremely solid without Lebron since early March. The only downside is the matchup against Dallas is not that good and the pace down nature for the Lakers is a large concern.
High: Zach Lavine ($8,200)
Mid: Deni Avdija ($5,100) or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,500)
Low: Corey Kispert ($3,900)

SF: Kevin Durant ($11,300)

So there was a lot of back and forth for me on Durant vs. Giannis. I am siding with Durant because Giannis is in a massive pace down spot and he has both Middleton and Jrue to contend with. Durant is really just vying with Kyrie and he has a much Killian Hayes to deal with and he is only good for his defense. Durant should get plenty of usage, big minutes and should be able to destroy in the paint. The Pistons are bottom 10 in points in the paint allowed so Durant should be efficient there and his mid range game is money even against the best. His last game against Detroit was a 79 DK points barrage giving me a lot of confidence for what Durant can do tonight.
High: Cade Cunningham ($8,800)
Mid: Bruce Brown ($5,800)
Low: Reggie Bullock ($4,200) or Pat Connaughton ($4,000)

PF: Marvin Bagley ($5,600)

No Grant for the rest of the season and Bagley is eating up a ton of his minutes. The game itself has the highest implied total on the slate and the numbers for Bagley lately are amazing for the price you are paying. He has 37 DK points in each of the last two games in a similar situation that I don't think is going to change here. All in all, Bagley checks just about every box tonight as long as the game itself holds up to the hype.
High: Kristaps Porzingis ($8,500) or DeMar DeRozan ($8,300)
Mid: Carmelo Anthony ($4,600) or Robert Covington ($4,400)
Low: Wenyen Gabriel ($4,000)

C: Isaiah Hartenstein ($4,700)

I really think the Clippers need to change things up with their approach to defending Gobert because the last few games have not worked. Gobert has been putting Zubac through the ringer and it has led to them rolling out Hartenstein for big minutes. He has 28+ DK points in each of the last 3 meetings against UTA and in each of his last 3 games in general. His price is still fairly tolerable and I think you can get him at solid ownership. I have been going with him over the last few slates so I am going right back to the well with Hartenstein here. Until he fails me or the Clippers choose to funnel him out of the rotation he is a solid play.
High: Rudy Gobert ($7,300)
Mid: Isaiah Stewart ($5,000)
Low: Daniel Gafford ($3,400)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!

NBA March 25th Starting Five

The NBA season in full swing and we have another great slate tonight! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
1. Price
2. Opponent DvP
3. Recent Minutes/Rotation Time
4. Usage Rate
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Also be sure to subscribe to our YouTube for our video breakdowns! Click the links below to join/follow!
For Premium Draftkings Cash/GPP lineups, contest selection, or PrizePick/SuperDraft lineups, be sure to sign-up for NBA Premium! For just $25/month or $10/week, it will provide you with our NBA Clipboard which should be everything you need to dominate this NBA Season! Sign-up today using promo code NBA2021 for 50% off your first month!

Update: Was probably 2 minutes away from finishing the article the first time with tons of detail when my laptop bricked. Nothing saved so this is my 2nd go of it and I don't have much time. Sorry if it is brief.

PG: Jordan Poole ($7,800)

Poole has been a beast without Curry. 38+ DK points in 4 straight with crazy high usage. Klay and Wiggins have tougher defensive matchups which should open up Poole to smash in an easier defensive matchup.
High: James Harden ($10,000)
Mid: Kyle Lowry ($6,500) or Patrick Beverley ($4,700)
Low: Kris Dunn ($4,500)

SG: Ben McLemore ($3,700)

This game has everything. A high implied total with both teams terrible on the defensive end. McLemore is getting great usage and minutes off the bench. His price is just way too cheap given he has 25+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games and both Hart and Winslow are out again.
High: Donovan Mitchell ($9,000)
Mid: N/A
Low: Reggie Bullock ($4,400) or CJ Elleby ($4,200)

SF: Terence Mann ($5,500)

This is definitely a GPP play. The Clips came out and said Reggie, Batum and Morris would be on minutes limits for the rest of the season. There was no mention of Mann so 30+ minutes is a lock. Matchup might suck but the minutes and usage will be there along with the fact that he has been balling lately (35+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games)
High: Cade Cunningham ($8,700)
Mid: Otto Porter ($4,600) or Evan Fournier ($5,000)
Low: Royce O'Neale ($3,900)

PF: Jae'Sean Tate ($4,200)

He is finally back to getting a decent usage and minutes. The price is a bit low and the game environment should be great. The PF position on DK is also not really that great so taking Tate at lower ownership could be a big winner (or loser given his volatility lately). I just think it is a good spot for him against some end of bench/G-Leaguer's.
High: Kristaps Porzingis ($8,300)
Mid: Tobias Harris ($6,900)
Low: Greg Brown ($3,400)

C: Rudy Gobert ($7,600)

This is definitely a Eubanks vs. Gobert slate, but the price gap isn't large enough for me to come off of Gobert especially given he is playing Charlotte who is terrible against bigs. He has destroyed them in the past and I fully expect him to do the same here at a half decent price tag as well. It is just too prime of a spot for Gobert to not want to go to him tonight.
High: Joel Embiid ($11,200) or Christian Wood ($8,300)
Mid: Drew Eubanks ($6,300)
Low: Dwight Powell ($4,800)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!

NBA March 24th Starting Five

The NBA season in full swing and we have another great slate tonight! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
1. Price
2. Opponent DvP
3. Recent Minutes/Rotation Time
4. Usage Rate
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Also be sure to subscribe to our YouTube for our video breakdowns! Click the links below to join/follow!
For Premium Draftkings Cash/GPP lineups, contest selection, or PrizePick/SuperDraft lineups, be sure to sign-up for NBA Premium! For just $25/month or $10/week, it will provide you with our NBA Clipboard which should be everything you need to dominate this NBA Season! Sign-up today using promo code NBA2021 for 50% off your first month!

PG: Monte Morris ($4,600)

In what should be a competitive game, Morris will likely play in the 30 minutes range and is far too cheap for his recent production in similar game scripts. He has scored 25+ DK points in 8 straight games where he hits the 30 minute mark with most being closer to the 30 DK points mark. They are going to need his defensive prowess against both Payne and Booker who will get a lot of shots up. He comes into this game with the #1 PG DRPM in the league which alone should keep him on the court. With PHX so focused on Jokic, I think Morris can have an efficient night especially considering his matchup against Payne who has a -2.78 DRPM.
High: CJ McCollum ($9,100)
Mid: N/A
Low: Tyus Jones ($4,300)

SG: Zach Lavine ($7,700)

For me the price tag on Lavine is just way too low and he might be playing without DeRozan tonight. Lavine put up 38 DK points last game which was good for 5x in his first game back, he has 5x or higher in 3 of the last 4 games and in 3 of the last 4 against NOP he has scored 49+ DK points. The minutes and usage will always be there; it all comes down to if he can reach his ceiling. The matchup against McCollum shouldn't be difficult at all so I think he can be efficient. It just seems like Lavine checks all of the boxes tonight and DeRozan sitting would be the icing on the cake.
High: Desmond Bane ($7,100)
Mid: De'Anthony Melton ($5,000)
Low: Corey Kispert ($4,100)

SF: Dillon Brooks ($5,700)

Brooks is finally back to getting his normal minutes. He broke the 30 minute mark last game without Morant and we should see him miss this one as well. He has 30+ DK points in back to back games and I think with the strength of the Pacers being at defending guards, having a bigger guard/forward in Brooks to exploit that should work wonders for them. He also is going to see a lot of Buddy Hield who has a negative DRPM this season. All in all, the price, production, matchup and usage will all be solid for Brooks here leaving me thinking he can have a ceiling game. Not to mention this game has the highest implied total on the slate.
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700)
Mid: Lauri Markkanen ($6,100) or Oshae Brissett ($5,300)
Low: Lamar Stevens ($3,400)

PF: Pat Connaughton ($4,100)

Without Middleton, Pat is going to be asked to get in the 20-25 minutes range and since his return he has been extremely effective. He has exactly 26.25 DK points in both games which if he can repeat would put him at 6x value. The only fear I have is the last two games were in much better pace situations. This is a pretty sizeable pace down spot for the Bucks, but he is still going to get a solid amount of run. On a small slate sometimes you just have to take what DK gives you and that is how I feel with Pat tonight. He should be a really safe option at a decent price with decent ownership.
High: Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,900)
Mid: Aaron Gordon ($5,000) or Rui Hachimura ($4,500)
Low: Terry Taylor ($3,500)

C: Goga Bitadze ($4,900)

Until he fails me I will continue to go right back to Goga. He has 28+ DK points in 5 of the last 6 games with a ceiling of 47 DK points and a few 35+ DK points games in there as well. There are going to need his size out there against the Grizzles who roll out quite a bit of size in their rotations. They are already thin in the front court and now they might have Isaiah Jackson more than likely out with concussion symptoms and Jalen Smith questionable with an illness. If both sit then Goga will have to play massive minutes and at this price you can't pass it up. If he starts I am going right back to him and I think you should too even with the implied spread at 12 points.
High: Nikola Jokic ($11,400) or Kristaps Porzingis ($8,700)
Mid: Steven Adams ($5,800)
Low: Khem Birch ($3,300)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!

NBA March 18th Starting Five

The NBA season in full swing and we have another great slate tonight! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
1. Price
2. Opponent DvP
3. Recent Minutes/Rotation Time
4. Usage Rate
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Also be sure to subscribe to our YouTube for our video breakdowns! Click the links below to join/follow!
For Premium Draftkings Cash/GPP lineups, contest selection, or PrizePick/SuperDraft lineups, be sure to sign-up for NBA Premium! For just $25/month or $10/week, it will provide you with our NBA Clipboard which should be everything you need to dominate this NBA Season! Sign-up today using promo code NBA2021 for 50% off your first month!

PG: Malcolm Brogdon ($7,700)

This is definitely more of a GPP play given Brogdon recently returned from injury. In his first game back he got a whopping 35 minutes of action and last game in a blowout only 27 minutes. I think that will run people away from him but there a lot of things to love about Brogdon today. First of all the matchup against the Rockets is a massive pace up spot for the Rockets who are dead last in defensive efficiency. Secondly his last two games against HOU have been 50+ DK point outings. Now I get that was without Haliburton, but that should take some attention off of him and the matchup is still prime. Houston has had the 6th worst PG DvP over the last two weeks but a top 10 SG and SF DvP which makes me think they will need to lean on Brogdon a lot more here. Can't forget to mention Indiana has the highest implied team total on the slate. All in all, as long as the game stays close and Brogdon can get his usual 35 minutes then he can easily have a big game here. He checks all of the boxes tonight.
High: Dejounte Murray ($10,600)
Mid: Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,400)
Low: Kris Dunn ($3,000)

SG: Nickiel Alexander-Walker ($3,100)

There are a lot of solid SG options don't get me wrong. However, NAW is in a prime spot here with Donovan, Bojan and potentially Trent Forrest all out. I think this becomes a sketchy play if Forrest plays, but if he is out then full steam ahead with NAW here. He played 22 minutes last game which resulted in 26 DK points. That is a really solid FPPM output and that was with Donovan playing. He might have to see 30 minutes tonight at the guard spot if Forrest is once again out. The usage rate should jump and he is dirt cheap. He just allows you to do so much with the rest of your roster. Again, monitor the availability of Forrest before rolling out NAW because that could put a damper on his minutes cap in a big way.
High: Devin Booker ($9,100) or CJ McCollum ($9,300)
Mid: Jordan Clarkson ($5,800)
Low: Josh Richardson ($4,200)

SF: Kevin Durant ($10,500)

Kevin Durant gets to play against a borderline G League team, is priced down big time, will have Seth Curry returning to space things out a bit for him and Irving is out. I don't care if he is slumping this is the perfect time to target Durant. He is still going to see somewhere in the 30-40% usage rate range and play big minutes. Brooklyn just isn't playing well right now at home. They haven't won a game by double digits at home in over a month so I wouldn't put a blowout in the range of possibilities. Durant should own this spot; it is just that simple. There might be a few other spend options to roll with but I still trust Durant to do his thing tonight.
High: Jayson Tatum ($9,500)
Mid: Buddy Hield ($7,400) or Marcus Morris ($6,100)
Low: Corey Kispert ($3,400)

PF: Pascal Siakam ($9,500)

Siakam is just playing great ball right now with 50+ DK points in 4 straight games with one of those being against the team he plays tonight. The Lakers are truly terrible on the defensive end, especially against PFs. They have had the worst PF DvP over the last two weeks. I think the price is a touch low for how he has been playing and his usage so I am more than comfortable going back to him here. There are enough cheap options tonight that you can afford Siakam and maybe 2 studs. He just seems like such a safe play tonight that also has a high upside for the price.
High: DeMar DeRozan ($9,000)
Mid: Keldon Johnson ($6,600)
Low: Terry Taylor ($3,200)

C: Goga Bitadze ($3,400)

Once again if Goga is out then this is irrelevant, but if he is active then he is a lock. He has scored 28+ DK points in the last 3 games he has been active. Isaiah Jackson is out which leaves IND with only Jalen Smith and Terry Taylor as their only bigs. If Goga plays he is almost a lock for 30 minutes and in those 3 games over 28 DK points his max minutes was 24 minutes. I think there is a 10x+ floor here if he plays which is something I am not going to pass up. If he is out then lock in Terry Taylor and consider Claxton as a direct replacement at the same price.
High: Joel Embiid ($10,800)
Mid: Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,600)
Low: Precious Achiuwa ($4,400) or Nicolas Claxton ($3,400)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!

NBA March 15th Starting Five

The NBA season in full swing and we have another great slate tonight! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
1. Price
2. Opponent DvP
3. Recent Minutes/Rotation Time
4. Usage Rate
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @FantasyLabsNBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS for any updates on favorite play changes!
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Also be sure to subscribe to our YouTube for our video breakdowns! Click the links below to join/follow!
For Premium Draftkings Cash/GPP lineups, contest selection, or PrizePick/SuperDraft lineups, be sure to sign-up for NBA Premium! For just $25/month or $10/week, it will provide you with our NBA Clipboard which should be everything you need to dominate this NBA Season! Sign-up today using promo code NBA2021 for 50% off your first month!

PG: Tyus Jones ($3,400)

Today is Grizzles' day so this is going to be short and sweet. Jones without Ja this season is a very solid producer and that is what we have tonight. The matchup is quite easy against Indiana who has been a bottom 5 defensive efficiency team this season and the Grizzles have the 2nd highest implied team total on the slate. Don't get cute here and just take what the slate is giving you. He is just way too cheap.
High: Devin Booker ($9,600)
Mid: Cole Anthony ($6,300)
Low: Markelle Fultz ($4,200)

SG: Dillon Brooks ($4,900)

I don't know why they left him this cheap. No Ja means the usage will be through the roof. It is a small slate so there really isn't much to work with anyways. Very similar to Tyus but I actually think the minutes are more secure and the usage will be higher. Roll him out with confidence.
High: Kyrie Irving ($10,200)
Mid: Desmond Bane ($6,700)
Low: RJ Hampton ($3,400)

SF: Kevin Durant ($11,100)

Durant has a cupcake matchup, has the highest ceiling on the slate and is fairly underpriced for the situation. He has scored 60 and 77 DK points in the last two games and could go even higher here as long as this one doesn't blow out. I am not concerned that Franz Wagner is a solid defender. He is still a rookie that Durant can easily exploit. They will do enough to get him into a favorable matchup that he can ball in. There is enough value to fit him in tonight so there is no reason not to.
High: Jimmy Butler ($8,600)
Mid: Bruce Brown Jr. ($5,200)
Low: Ziaire Williams ($3,200)

PF: Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,500)

Another case where JJJ will see a massive usage boost without Morant and we have seen him put up massive without him. He is underpriced due to recent foul trouble, so if he can just limit that then the sky is the limit. Indiana is not a good defensive team especially in the paint with the 7th worst PF DvP over the last two weeks. For JJJ he just has to avoid the fouls and he will easily pay off the price tag. Just like Tyus and Dillon, just take what the slate is giving you when you have only 4 games.
High: Wendell Carter Jr. ($7,400)
Mid: Jalen Smith ($5,500)
Low: Markieff Morris ($3,000)

C: Goga Bitadze ($3,400)**

This is really the last piece of the puzzle I need to fall before I can probably set and forget my lineup. Goga has been an animal lately with 28+ DK points in 3 straight games. Those games have been spotty and he is questionable tonight, but if he is active and not limited he is a lock. You can't avoid that type of production and he is going to be needed to deal with Steven Adams. If he is out then Jalen Smith becomes a very nice value and so do the other guys below.
High: Bam Adebayo ($8,200)
Mid: Mo Bamba ($5,500)
Low: Nicolas Claxton ($3,900)
Thanks for reading, best of luck, and I hope you enjoy the holidays!
Heating Up DFS